Steelers @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sun, Nov 23, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff50°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

6-4 · Power #19

final

Final

Chicago Bears

7-3 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -2.5

✓ CHI W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 22–25 CHI

✓ CHI (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -3

CloseCHI -2.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -3

0.5 → PIT

CloseCHI -2.5

0.5 pts toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -3 · closed CHI -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward PITmodel CHI -2.5 matches the line

model CHI -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (184 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCHI -3

CloseCHI -2.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 2.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 31–28; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 3; 43.2 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	17–19	L	U47.5
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Very close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Very close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	37–10	W	O44.5
Close	SF vs LAR 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	6–12	L	U48.5
Close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT LLWLW	5-5	50%	1-3	2-2
CHI WLWLW	6-4	60%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT OOUUU	5-5	50%	6-4
CHI UOOUU	6-4	60%	7-3

Went over in Q4. Of 160 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
CHI	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PIT 2–4 CHI CHI leads · 6 games since 2005 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT+0.5 →−1.3▼ 1.8#21

CHI−1.4 →−0.5▲ 0.9#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

PIT

Longer bar = better

CHI

#17

Offense

CHI better ▶

#18

Defense

◀ PIT better

#24

+0.8 #6

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+1.6 #1

56 plays #32

Pace

CHI faster ▶

65 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: PIT offense

	PIT off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #12	26.4 #26	PIT
Yards / play	5.17 #21	6.21 #30	PIT
EPA / play	+0.02 #16	0.00 #15	Even
Success rate	43% #20	46% #23	Even

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #8	23.2 #17	CHI
Yards / play	5.77 #8	5.37 #18	CHI
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	+0.02 #19	CHI
Success rate	45% #12	44% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.0 #13	7.4 #11	12.4 #10	3.4 #24	8.8 #5	12.2 #13
CHI allowed	3.7 #6	8.2 #25	11.9 #20	5.4 #24	9.1 #27	14.5 #30

CHI scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	6.0 #7	7.0 #18	13.0 #9	5.0 #14	7.8 #10	12.8 #10
PIT allowed	4.1 #13	5.0 #4	9.1 #6	3.3 #7	10.8 #31	14.1 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.