Bills @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sun, Nov 30, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff34°F13 mphgusts 35DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

7-4 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

6-5 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

BUF -3

✓ BUF W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 25–22 PIT

✓ BUF (62%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -3

CloseBUF -3

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -3

no move

CloseBUF -3

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -3 · unchangedmodel BUF -6

model BUF -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (113 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -3

CloseBUF -3

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 3-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 26–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 2.8; 49.3 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Very close	GB @ PIT 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	35–25	W	O45.5
Very close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Very close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Very close	BUF @ SEA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	31–10	W	U45.5
Very close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	DAL @ CAR 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	27–30	L	O45.5
Close	LAC @ HOU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	12–32	L	O41.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WWLWL	5-6	45%	2-3	3-6
PIT LWLWL	5-6	45%	3-2	2-3

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUUOU	5-6	45%	7-4
PIT OUUUO	6-5	55%	6-5

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
PIT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUF 6–7 PIT PIT leads · 13 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 15 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 17 @ Buffalo Bills 31	BUF -10	BUF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.6 →+3.6▲ 1.0#6

PIT+0.5 →−1.1▼ 1.6#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BUF

Longer bar = better

PIT

Offense

◀ BUF better

#15

#17

Defense

Even

#19

−0.2 #17

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+0.7 #4

62 plays #13

Pace

◀ BUF faster

57 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #5	23.9 #19	BUF
Yards / play	6.12 #3	5.37 #18	BUF
EPA / play	+0.13 #4	+0.02 #22	BUF
Success rate	48% #6	44% #17	BUF

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #10	22.9 #17	PIT
Yards / play	5.15 #21	5.48 #21	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #15	+0.01 #19	Even
Success rate	44% #15	43% #10	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	6.2 #5	7.3 #13	13.5 #7	6.8 #3	8.0 #9	14.8 #1
PIT allowed	4.4 #18	5.5 #8	9.8 #10	3.6 #8	10.5 #31	14.1 #29

PIT scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.2 #11	8.0 #9	13.2 #9	3.1 #26	8.6 #4	11.7 #14
BUF allowed	4.3 #15	9.0 #28	13.3 #25	3.3 #4	6.4 #15	9.6 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.