Jaguars @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sun, Nov 30, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Tennessee Titans · Division game

Weather at kickoff42°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

7-4 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

1-10 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

JAX -6

✓ JAX W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 25–19 TEN

✓ JAX (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJAX -6

CloseJAX -6

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJAX -6

no move

CloseJAX -6

No change since the open

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Close42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -6 · unchangedmodel JAX -6.5

model JAX -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 73%, covered 52% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJAX -6

CloseJAX -6

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 6-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 25–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 42.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 50%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 6.4; 53.3 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 9 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NE @ TEN 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	31–13	W	O41.5
Very close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Very close	TB @ CAR 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	26–23	L	O46.5
Very close	ARI @ CAR 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	30–36	L	O47.5
Very close	ATL @ LV 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	15–9	W	U43.5
Very close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Very close	IND @ NYG 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	33–45	L	O40.5
Very close	PIT @ CIN 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	31–33	L	O44.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	17–34	L	O41.5
Very close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX LLLWW	6-5	55%	2-3	3-1
TEN LLWWW	5-6	45%	3-3	5-6

Venue/role: JAX away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UOOUO	6-5	55%	7-4
TEN OOOUO	7-4	64%	1-10

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
TEN	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

JAX 23–32 TEN TEN leads · 55 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 29 2024	Tennessee Titans 13 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 20	TEN -1.5	JAX W
Dec 8 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 10 @ Tennessee Titans 6	TEN -3.5	JAX W
Jan 7 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Tennessee Titans 28	JAX -3.5	TEN W
Nov 19 2023	Tennessee Titans 14 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 34	JAX -6.5	JAX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX−2.1 →0.0▲ 2.1#16

TEN−1.8 →−6.2▼ 4.4#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

JAX

Longer bar = better

TEN

#18

Offense

◀ JAX better

#31

#13

Defense

◀ JAX better

#27

+0.4 #10

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

−0.4 #24

65 plays #4

Pace

◀ JAX faster

58 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #12	27.5 #29	JAX
Yards / play	5.06 #24	5.83 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #20	+0.12 #28	JAX
Success rate	45% #14	46% #23	JAX

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	TEN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	15.2 #30	22.7 #15	JAX
Yards / play	4.24 #31	5.26 #15	JAX
EPA / play	−0.18 #30	−0.05 #6	JAX
Success rate	38% #31	44% #15	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.3 #18	6.7 #19	11.0 #18	5.4 #9	7.0 #13	12.4 #12
TEN allowed	6.4 #28	7.0 #18	13.4 #25	7.8 #32	6.4 #15	14.2 #29

TEN scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.5 #25	3.5 #31	7.0 #31	3.0 #25	5.2 #25	8.2 #29
JAX allowed	4.0 #11	5.6 #8	9.6 #6	2.9 #2	9.6 #30	12.5 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.