Texans @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sun, Nov 30, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Indianapolis Colts · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

6-5 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Indianapolis Colts

8-3 · Power #13

final

Closing spread

IND -3.5

✓ HOU W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 21–25 IND

✗ IND (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -3.5

CloseIND -3.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -3.5

no move

CloseIND -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 3

Close43.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -3.5 · unchangedmodel IND -2

model IND -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (190 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -3.5

CloseIND -3.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 3.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 20–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 43.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 3.8; 41.9 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SEA vs HOU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	27–19	W	O41.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	23–20	W	U45.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	HOU vs SF 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	26–15	W	U41.5
Close	PHI vs DEN 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-4.5	17–21	L	U44.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	GB vs PHI 2025 · Week 10 · close	-1.5	7–10	L	U44.5
Close	PHI vs GB 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-5.5	22–10	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WLWLW	5-6	45%	1-4	1-3
IND WWLWW	8-3	73%	4-1	5-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUOUU	3-8	27%	6-5
IND OOUOU	6-5	55%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
IND	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

HOU 15–34 IND (1 tied) IND leads · 50 games since 2002 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 27 2024	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Houston Texans 23	HOU -4.5	IND W
Sep 8 2024	Houston Texans 29 @ Indianapolis Colts 27	HOU -3.5	IND W
Jan 6 2023	Houston Texans 23 @ Indianapolis Colts 19	HOU -1.5	HOU W
Sep 17 2023	Indianapolis Colts 31 @ Houston Texans 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.6 →+3.7▲ 3.1#5

IND−0.8 →+3.1▲ 3.9#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

HOU

Longer bar = better

IND

#22

Offense

IND better ▶

Defense

◀ HOU better

#14

+0.9 #3

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

+0.4 #9

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ HOU faster

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	HOU off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #21	20.8 #9	IND
Yards / play	5.07 #23	5.21 #14	IND
EPA / play	−0.01 #19	−0.03 #10	IND
Success rate	42% #26	46% #24	Even

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #1	16.5 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.31 #1	4.61 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.17 #1	−0.14 #1	Even
Success rate	50% #2	38% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	2.9 #30	7.6 #9	10.5 #21	3.5 #22	8.0 #9	11.5 #16
IND allowed	3.0 #3	6.4 #14	9.4 #5	4.1 #13	7.1 #20	11.2 #13

IND scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	7.2 #3	9.0 #5	16.2 #2	7.1 #2	7.2 #12	14.3 #4
HOU allowed	4.5 #20	4.4 #2	8.9 #4	4.5 #18	3.1 #1	7.6 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.