Texans @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sun, Dec 7, 2025, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff28°F6 mphgusts 15DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston Texans

7-5 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

6-6 · Power #12

final

Closing spread

KC -4.5

✓ HOU W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 18–23 KC

✗ KC (66%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -5.5

CloseKC -4.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -5.5

1 → HOU

CloseKC -4.5

1 pt toward Houston Texans

Total

Open43.5

▼ 2

Close41.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -5.5 · closed KC -4.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel KC -5.5

model KC -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 52% (132 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (66 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -5.5

CloseKC -4.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 4.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 20–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 4.3; 44.9 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs DEN 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	17–21	L	U44.5
Very close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	IND vs HOU 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	16–20	L	U43.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	SEA vs HOU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	27–19	W	O41.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Close	KC vs LAC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Close	BUF vs SF 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-6.5	35–10	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LWLWW	6-6	50%	2-4	2-3
KC WLLL–	5-6	45%	4-2	4-5

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UOUUU	3-9	25%	7-5
KC UUUUO	4-8	33%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
KC	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

HOU 6–11 KC KC leads · 17 games since 2003 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 18 2024	Houston Texans 14 @ Kansas City Chiefs 23	KC -9.5	HOU W
Dec 21 2024	Houston Texans 19 @ Kansas City Chiefs 27	KC -3.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.6 →+3.9▲ 3.3#6

KC+1.3 →+4.0▲ 2.7#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

HOU

Longer bar = better

#23

Offense

KC better ▶

Defense

◀ HOU better

#17

+0.8 #3

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

+0.2 #11

64 plays #7

Pace

KC faster ▶

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	HOU off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #20	19.3 #7	KC
Yards / play	5.07 #24	5.55 #22	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #20	+0.01 #18	Even
Success rate	42% #28	45% #21	KC

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #9	16.5 #1	HOU
Yards / play	5.69 #8	4.67 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.14 #2	−0.14 #1	Even
Success rate	48% #4	38% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	2.9 #30	7.6 #11	10.5 #22	3.5 #23	7.9 #9	11.4 #18
KC allowed	4.3 #17	5.8 #11	10.1 #11	4.2 #13	5.1 #5	9.3 #8

KC scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.6 #26	8.3 #8	11.8 #14	5.1 #13	8.3 #7	13.3 #8
HOU allowed	4.2 #16	4.5 #2	8.7 #3	4.8 #18	3.1 #1	7.8 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.