Commanders @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sun, Dec 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

3-9 · Power #27

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

4-8 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIN -1.5

✓ MIN W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 23–24 MIN

✓ MIN (54%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIN -1.5

CloseMIN -1.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -1.5

no move

CloseMIN -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -1.5 · unchangedmodel WSH -2

model WSH -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 51% (103 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIN -1.5

CloseMIN -1.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 1.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 31–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 43.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 2.7; 38.4 points a game (usually 43.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LV vs JAX 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	19–14	W	U41.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	17–19	L	U47.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest	-3.5	6–22	L	U44.5
Close	IND vs JAX 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	26–23	L	O45.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LLLLW	4-8	33%	1-4	2-7
MIN WLLLL	4-8	33%	1-4	2-3

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UOOUO	7-5	58%	3-9
MIN OUUUU	7-5	58%	4-8

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
MIN	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 4–9 MIN MIN leads · 13 games since 2004 · MIN has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.7 →−2.0▼ 2.7#23

MIN+1.0 →−2.0▼ 3.0#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

WSH

Longer bar = better

MIN

#14

Offense

◀ WSH better

#28

#29

Defense

MIN better ▶

#12

−0.7 #30

Turnovers

Even

−1.3 #32

61 plays #22

Pace

◀ WSH faster

56 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	23.4 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #12	4.94 #7	MIN
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	−0.03 #10	Even
Success rate	47% #8	43% #12	Even

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #28	26.9 #28	Even
Yards / play	4.90 #27	6.28 #32	MIN
EPA / play	−0.18 #29	+0.14 #30	Even
Success rate	41% #29	47% #27	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.3 #31	7.3 #11	9.7 #23	5.6 #9	6.1 #20	11.7 #14
MIN allowed	4.8 #22	6.6 #16	11.4 #18	5.5 #25	6.5 #15	12.0 #21

MIN scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.5 #15	4.2 #29	8.7 #27	4.0 #21	6.0 #21	10.0 #24
WSH allowed	6.7 #30	8.0 #25	14.7 #28	6.3 #28	5.2 #7	11.4 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.