Seahawks @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sun, Dec 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

9-3 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Atlanta Falcons

4-8 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

SEA -7

✓ SEA W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 26–19 ATL

✓ SEA (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -7.5

CloseSEA -7

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -7.5

0.5 → ATL

CloseSEA -7

0.5 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -7.5 · closed SEA -7 · moved 0.5 toward ATLmodel SEA -6

model SEA -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 73%, covered 41% (45 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -7.5

CloseSEA -7

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 7-point road favorite at ATL, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 37–9; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 9100%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 6.4; 45.8 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB @ ARI 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	27–23	L	O44.5
Very close	WSH @ NO 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	20–19	L	U44.5
Very close	GB @ CHI 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	20–19	L	U41.5
Very close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Very close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Very close	DET @ CHI 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	34–17	W	O47.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	DEN @ WSH 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	27–26	L	O43.5
Close	LAR @ BAL 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	17–3	W	U44.5
Close	GB @ DAL 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	40–40	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA WWWLW	9-3	75%	5-1	7-2
ATL WLLWL	5-7	42%	2-3	4-1

Venue/role: SEA away, as favorite; ATL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA OOUOU	7-5	58%	9-3
ATL OOOUO	6-6	50%	4-8

Went over in Q4. Of 212 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
ATL	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SEA 10–7 ATL SEA leads · 17 games since 2000 · SEA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 20 2024	Seattle Seahawks 34 @ Atlanta Falcons 14	ATL -2.5	SEA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA−0.1 →+4.3▲ 4.4#2

ATL−0.4 →−1.1▼ 0.7#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

SEA

Longer bar = better

ATL

Offense

◀ SEA better

#18

Defense

◀ SEA better

#17

−0.3 #25

Turnovers

ATL better ▶

+0.3 #10

59 plays #25

Pace

ATL faster ▶

61 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SEA offense

	SEA off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #4	23.0 #16	SEA
Yards / play	6.03 #3	5.10 #9	SEA
EPA / play	+0.03 #13	0.00 #17	Even
Success rate	46% #10	46% #24	SEA

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	ATL off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #26	18.1 #3	SEA
Yards / play	5.48 #13	4.55 #2	SEA
EPA / play	−0.01 #21	−0.10 #4	SEA
Success rate	45% #13	40% #4	SEA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	6.9 #2	10.6 #2	17.5 #1	6.7 #5	5.0 #26	11.7 #14
ATL allowed	4.0 #13	6.7 #17	10.7 #16	4.9 #21	6.7 #16	11.6 #18

ATL scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.1 #11	6.2 #23	11.3 #18	3.3 #23	5.7 #23	9.0 #28
SEA allowed	3.5 #6	3.7 #1	7.2 #1	3.8 #9	7.1 #20	10.9 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.