Broncos @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sun, Nov 30, 2025, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff39°F5 mphgusts 14DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Denver Broncos

9-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

3-8 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

DEN -6.5

✓ WSH W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 26–20 WSH

✓ DEN (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -6.5

CloseDEN -6.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -6.5

no move

CloseDEN -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -6.5 · unchangedmodel DEN -3

model DEN -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 47% (65 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -6.5

CloseDEN -6.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 6.5-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 27–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 989%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 6.4; 44.8 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB @ CHI 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	20–19	L	U41.5
Close	GB @ DAL 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	40–40	L	O46.5
Close	LAR @ BAL 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	17–3	W	U44.5
Close	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Close	WSH @ NO 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	20–19	L	U44.5
Close	GB @ ARI 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	27–23	L	O44.5
Close	LAC @ LV 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	34–20	W	O41.5
Close	LAC @ NYG 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	18–21	L	U43.5
Close	HOU @ DAL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	34–10	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LWWLW	5-6	45%	2-2	2-5
WSH LLLLL	3-8	27%	2-3	1-7

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN OOUUU	3-8	27%	9-2
WSH OUOOU	6-5	55%	3-8

Went over in OT. Of 199 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
WSH	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DEN 4–4 WSH Series tied · 8 games since 2001 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 17 2023	Washington Commanders 35 @ Denver Broncos 33	DEN -3.5	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+0.4 →+2.2▲ 1.8#10

WSH+0.7 →−2.1▼ 2.8#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

DEN

Longer bar = better

WSH

#16

Offense

Even

#13

Defense

◀ DEN better

#30

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

◀ DEN better

−0.7 #30

63 plays #12

Pace

◀ DEN faster

58 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: DEN offense

	DEN off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #15	26.9 #28	DEN
Yards / play	5.33 #16	6.32 #32	DEN
EPA / play	+0.04 #11	+0.14 #31	DEN
Success rate	42% #23	48% #28	DEN

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	WSH off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #23	17.5 #2	DEN
Yards / play	5.65 #10	4.40 #1	DEN
EPA / play	+0.03 #13	−0.10 #5	DEN
Success rate	47% #7	37% #1	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.5 #15	6.3 #21	10.8 #20	3.0 #26	9.5 #2	12.5 #11
WSH allowed	7.0 #30	7.8 #24	14.8 #29	6.2 #28	5.6 #10	11.8 #19

WSH scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.5 #31	7.4 #11	9.9 #23	5.5 #10	6.1 #20	11.5 #17
DEN allowed	4.3 #18	5.4 #8	9.6 #9	4.0 #11	3.8 #2	7.8 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.