Thu, Nov 27, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Detroit Lions · Division game
Closing spread
—
Total
48.5
▲ Over · 55 pts
Model before kickoff
GB 22–25 DET
✗ DET (60%) lost
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
Close—
Opening line not available
Total
Open48.5
no move
Close48.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened 48.5 · unchangedmodel 47.5
model 47.5
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line
SourceESPN closing line
Opennot available
Close—
Total48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Signals
The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
No notable trends or market moves for this game.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 132 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 GB | 6-3-1 67% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
 DET | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 since 2023
GB 36–18 DET
GB leads · 54 games since 1999 · GB has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 2025 | Detroit Lions 13 @ Green Bay Packers 27 | GB -1.5 | GB W |
| Dec 5 2024 | Green Bay Packers 31 @ Detroit Lions 34 | DET -3.5 | GB W |
| Nov 3 2024 | Detroit Lions 24 @ Green Bay Packers 14 | DET -2.5 | DET W |
| Nov 23 2023 | Green Bay Packers 29 @ Detroit Lions 22 | DET -8.5 | GB W |
| Sep 28 2023 | Detroit Lions 34 @ Green Bay Packers 20 | — | — |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
GB+2.2 →+3.2▲ 1.0#7
DET+2.8 →+4.7▲ 1.9#2
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12
GBLonger bar = better
DET#8
Offense
Even#6
#7
Defense
Even#8
+0.4 #12
Turnovers
DET better ▶+0.5 #7
61 plays #19
Pace
Even62 plays #16
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When GB has the ball| GB off | DET def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 23.9 #13 | 22.1 #12 | Even |
| Yards / play | 5.56 #11 | 5.11 #9 | Even |
| EPA / play | +0.14 #2 | −0.06 #6 | Even |
| Success rate | 48% #5 | 40% #4 | Even |
When DET has the ball| DET off | GB def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 29.6 #2 | 18.4 #5 | Even |
| Yards / play | 6.13 #3 | 4.58 #2 | Even |
| EPA / play | +0.10 #8 | −0.02 #12 | Even |
| Success rate | 47% #10 | 42% #9 | Even |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
GB scoring against the DET defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB scored | 3.5 #26 | 5.5 #26 | 9.0 #28 | 4.0 #20 | 10.6 #1 | 14.6 #3 |
| DET allowed | 6.1 #27 | 5.8 #11 | 11.9 #19 | 3.3 #4 | 6.9 #18 | 10.2 #9 |
DET scoring against the GB defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET scored | 6.0 #7 | 9.0 #4 | 15.0 #5 | 4.9 #15 | 9.1 #3 | 14.0 #5 |
| GB allowed | 1.5 #1 | 5.5 #7 | 7.0 #1 | 3.3 #4 | 7.8 #25 | 11.1 #12 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
DET +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
GB4d short
DET4d short
Even
Tempo
Average 123 plays
slowavg 123fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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