Bears @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sun, Dec 7, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Green Bay Packers · Division game

Weather at kickoff15°F5 mphgusts 11DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Chicago Bears

9-3 · Power #16

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

8-3-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -6.5

✓ GB W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 20–26 GB

✓ GB (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -7

CloseGB -6.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -7

0.5 → CHI

CloseGB -6.5

0.5 pts toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -7 · closed GB -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward CHImodel GB -7.5

model GB -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 50% (123 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -7

CloseGB -6.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 6.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 28–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 44.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 6.7; 42 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs MIN 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	23–6	W	U41.5
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	55–23	W	O47.5
Very close	PHI vs CHI 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-7	15–24	L	U43.5
Very close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	SF vs SEA 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	17–20	L	U48.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Close	KC vs DEN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	16–14	L	U41.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLWWW	8-4	67%	5-2	5-2
GB LLLW–	4-7	36%	3-3	4-7

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	7-5	58%	9-3
GB UUOUO	6-6	50%	8-3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 217 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
GB	6-3-1 67%	2-7 22%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

CHI 16–41 GB GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 5 2024	Chicago Bears 24 @ Green Bay Packers 22	GB -10.5	CHI W
Nov 17 2024	Green Bay Packers 20 @ Chicago Bears 19	GB -6.5	CHI W
Jan 7 2023	Chicago Bears 9 @ Green Bay Packers 17	GB -2.5	GB W
Sep 10 2023	Green Bay Packers 38 @ Chicago Bears 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−1.4 →−0.3▲ 1.1#18

GB+2.2 →+3.5▲ 1.3#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CHI

Longer bar = better

#10

Offense

GB better ▶

#25

Defense

GB better ▶

+1.4 #1

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

+0.3 #11

66 plays #1

Pace

◀ CHI faster

61 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #8	18.8 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #9	4.68 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #9	−0.02 #14	CHI
Success rate	45% #12	42% #9	Even

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #10	25.6 #25	GB
Yards / play	5.59 #10	6.09 #30	GB
EPA / play	+0.15 #2	0.00 #18	GB
Success rate	48% #3	47% #25	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	6.2 #5	6.9 #16	13.1 #8	4.8 #17	8.3 #7	13.0 #9
GB allowed	1.3 #1	6.3 #13	7.6 #2	3.6 #7	7.4 #23	11.0 #13

GB scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	3.4 #28	6.3 #22	9.7 #24	4.8 #15	9.8 #1	14.6 #2
CHI allowed	3.7 #5	8.3 #26	11.9 #19	5.0 #20	8.7 #27	13.7 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.