Cowboys @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Thu, Dec 4, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Detroit Lions

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

6-5-1 · Power #21

final

Final

Detroit Lions

7-5 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -3.5

✓ DET W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 26–30 DET

✓ DET (64%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -3.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -3.5

no move

CloseDET -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -3.5 · unchangedmodel DET -7

model DET -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (192 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -3.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 3.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: DET won 44–30; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 4; 50.3 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	DET vs TB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & season form	-6.5	24–9	W	U54.5
Close	DET vs GB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	34–31	L	O53.5
Close	DEN vs DAL 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	44–24	W	O51.5
Close	SF vs LAR 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	6–12	L	U48.5
Close	BAL vs DET 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	30–38	L	O53.5
Close	DAL vs ARI 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	U53.5
Close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL LLWW–	6-5	55%	3-3	4-1
DET LWLL–	6-5	55%	3-2	5-2

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OUOUO	8-4	67%	6-5-1
DET OOUOO	7-5	58%	7-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	5-4-1 56%	5-4 56%	7-3 70%
DET	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DAL 11–7 DET DAL leads · 18 games since 2001 · DET has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 13 2024	Detroit Lions 47 @ Dallas Cowboys 9	DET -3.5	DET W
Dec 30 2023	Detroit Lions 19 @ Dallas Cowboys 20	DAL -4.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL−1.0 →−0.2▲ 0.8#17

DET+2.8 →+4.3▲ 1.5#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

DAL

Longer bar = better

DET

Offense

Even

#30

Defense

DET better ▶

#11

−0.4 #27

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+0.4 #7

65 plays #4

Pace

◀ DAL faster

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #2	22.8 #15	DAL
Yards / play	6.06 #3	5.18 #12	DAL
EPA / play	+0.12 #5	−0.03 #11	DAL
Success rate	47% #7	41% #5	Even

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #3	28.5 #31	DET
Yards / play	6.11 #2	5.92 #28	DET
EPA / play	+0.10 #8	+0.13 #29	DET
Success rate	46% #9	49% #31	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	3.8 #22	12.2 #1	16.0 #3	5.8 #7	7.0 #12	12.8 #9
DET allowed	5.8 #27	6.5 #15	12.3 #20	4.2 #13	6.3 #15	10.5 #9

DET scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	5.5 #8	9.4 #4	14.9 #6	5.1 #12	8.6 #4	13.7 #5
DAL allowed	8.3 #32	7.6 #23	15.8 #31	4.2 #13	8.3 #26	12.4 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.