Vikings @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sun, Dec 14, 2025, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Dallas Cowboys

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

5-8 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Dallas Cowboys

6-6-1 · Power #21

final

Closing spread

DAL -5.5

✓ MIN W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 22–27 DAL

✗ DAL (69%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDAL -7.5

CloseDAL -5.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDAL -7.5

2 → MIN

CloseDAL -5.5

2 pts toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DAL -7.5 · closed DAL -5.5 · moved 2 toward MINmodel DAL -6.5

model DAL -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 50% (109 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 32% (34 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDAL -7.5

CloseDAL -5.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 5.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 34–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.6 against an average line of 5.5; 47 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	22–27	L	O43.5
Close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Close	ARI vs NE 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	30–17	W	O46.5
Close	SF vs CAR 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-7	20–9	W	U48.5
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Close	IND vs JAX 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	26–23	L	O45.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	38–13	W	O43.5
Close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN LLLLW	5-8	38%	2-3	2-5
DAL LWW–L	6-6	50%	3-2	2-4

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UUUUU	7-6	54%	5-8
DAL UOUOO	9-4	69%	6-6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 172 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
DAL	5-4-1 56%	5-4 56%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 8–6 DAL MIN leads · 14 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+1.0 →−1.2▼ 2.2#20

DAL−1.0 →−0.4▲ 0.6#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

MIN

Longer bar = better

DAL

#27

Offense

DAL better ▶

Defense

◀ MIN better

#31

−0.9 #31

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #29

56 plays #30

Pace

DAL faster ▶

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	19.6 #27	29.7 #31	Even
Yards / play	4.92 #27	6.01 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.14 #29	+0.14 #31	Even
Success rate	42% #24	49% #31	MIN

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #4	21.6 #12	DAL
Yards / play	6.01 #4	4.90 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.10 #7	−0.06 #9	Even
Success rate	47% #7	42% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.7 #15	4.4 #28	9.1 #27	4.5 #20	6.1 #20	10.5 #22
DAL allowed	8.4 #32	7.8 #22	16.2 #30	4.4 #13	8.9 #29	13.3 #27

DAL scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	3.8 #24	11.7 #1	15.5 #5	6.1 #7	7.3 #9	13.4 #7
MIN allowed	4.5 #18	6.1 #12	10.5 #17	5.1 #21	6.0 #10	11.1 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.