Commanders @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sun, Dec 14, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at New York Giants · Division game

Weather at kickoff27°F11 mphgusts 24DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Washington Commanders

3-10 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

New York Giants

2-11 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

NYG -3

✓ WSH W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 23–25 NYG

✗ NYG (60%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWSH -1.5

CloseNYG -3

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -1.5

4.5 → NYG

CloseNYG -3

4.5 pts toward New York Giants

Total

Open47.5

▼ 2

Close45.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -1.5 · closed NYG -3 · moved 4.5 toward NYGmodel NYG -1.5

model NYG -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (170 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWSH -1.5

CloseNYG -3

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYG as a 3-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 29–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 2.5; 43.1 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LV vs CHI 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	24–25	L	O46.5
Close	NO vs NYG 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	26–14	W	U42.5
Close	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar season form	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Close	NO vs ATL 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	10–24	L	U40.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	NYJ vs MIA 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	32–20	W	O39.5
Loose	NYJ vs SEA 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	21–26	L	O41.5
Loose	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Loose	TEN vs IND 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	19–10	W	U43
Loose	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings & total	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LLLWL	4-9	31%	1-5	2-8
NYG LWWWL	7-6	54%	3-2	—

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; NYG home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOUOU	7-6	54%	3-10
NYG OUOOO	8-5	62%	2-11

Went over in Q4. Of 206 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
NYG	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

WSH 21–32 NYG (2 tied) NYG leads · 55 games since 1999

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2025	New York Giants 6 @ Washington Commanders 21	WSH -5.5	WSH W
Nov 3 2024	Washington Commanders 27 @ New York Giants 22	WSH -3.5	WSH W
Sep 15 2024	New York Giants 18 @ Washington Commanders 21	WSH -1.5	WSH W
Nov 19 2023	New York Giants 31 @ Washington Commanders 19	WSH -7.5	NYG W
Oct 22 2023	Washington Commanders 7 @ New York Giants 14	WSH -3.5	NYG W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.7 →−2.9▼ 3.6#24

NYG−2.6 →−2.9▼ 0.3#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

WSH

Longer bar = better

NYG

#15

Offense

◀ WSH better

#21

#30

Defense

Even

#29

−0.8 #30

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #28

60 plays #23

Pace

NYG faster ▶

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	20.2 #24	28.2 #30	WSH
Yards / play	5.48 #13	6.04 #29	WSH
EPA / play	+0.01 #13	+0.14 #29	WSH
Success rate	46% #11	48% #27	WSH

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: NYG offense

	NYG off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #23	27.2 #28	NYG
Yards / play	5.28 #18	6.19 #31	NYG
EPA / play	+0.01 #15	+0.15 #31	NYG
Success rate	42% #27	48% #28	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.2 #31	6.8 #17	8.9 #27	5.2 #13	5.6 #25	10.8 #21
NYG allowed	4.7 #20	9.2 #28	13.9 #25	3.1 #5	10.5 #32	13.5 #28

NYG scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	5.5 #9	6.0 #24	11.5 #15	3.1 #26	6.9 #14	10.0 #25
WSH allowed	6.7 #30	7.9 #25	14.6 #27	6.5 #29	5.3 #7	11.8 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.