Falcons @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sun, Nov 23, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 12 · at New Orleans Saints · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

3-7 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

2-8 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

NO -1.5

✓ ATL W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 21–22 NO

✗ NO (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -3

CloseNO -1.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -3

4.5 → NO

CloseNO -1.5

4.5 pts toward New Orleans Saints

Total

Open40.5

no move

Close40.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -3 · closed NO -1.5 · moved 4.5 toward NOmodel ATL -3

model ATL -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 52% (102 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 55% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -3

CloseNO -1.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 1.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ATL won 24–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 40.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 2.2; 41 points a game (usually 43.4). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ vs SEA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	21–26	L	O41.5
Close	NO vs NYG 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	26–14	W	U42.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	LV vs CHI 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	24–25	L	O46.5
Close	NYJ vs MIA 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	32–20	W	O39.5
Close	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Loose	PIT vs NO 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	20–10	W	U39.5
Loose	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5
Loose	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · loose	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Loose	LV vs JAX 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	19–14	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLWLL	4-6	40%	2-2	3-1
NO LLLLW	3-7	30%	1-4	1-0

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UOOOO	5-5	50%	3-7
NO UUUUU	3-7	30%	2-8

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 53% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NO	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

ATL 23–32 NO NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 10 2024	Atlanta Falcons 17 @ New Orleans Saints 20	ATL -4.5	NO W
Sep 29 2024	New Orleans Saints 24 @ Atlanta Falcons 26	ATL -2.5	NO W
Jan 7 2023	Atlanta Falcons 17 @ New Orleans Saints 48	NO -3	NO W
Nov 26 2023	New Orleans Saints 15 @ Atlanta Falcons 24	NO -2	ATL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.4 →−1.4▼ 1.0#22

NO−1.6 →−3.9▼ 2.3#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ATL

Longer bar = better

#20

Offense

◀ ATL better

#29

#20

Defense

Even

#18

+0.4 #9

Turnovers

◀ ATL better

−0.3 #20

61 plays #20

Pace

Even

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #27	25.0 #22	NO
Yards / play	5.44 #14	5.14 #10	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #24	+0.01 #18	NO
Success rate	44% #16	45% #20	Even

When NO has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	NO off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #30	23.9 #19	ATL
Yards / play	4.83 #28	5.35 #17	ATL
EPA / play	−0.12 #29	+0.03 #21	ATL
Success rate	42% #28	46% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.8 #9	5.4 #26	11.2 #17	3.0 #25	5.3 #24	8.3 #28
NO allowed	8.2 #32	9.3 #29	17.5 #32	4.2 #15	3.3 #2	7.5 #1

NO scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.9 #32	7.6 #11	9.5 #25	2.3 #32	3.7 #32	6.0 #32
ATL allowed	4.8 #21	6.6 #17	11.4 #18	5.2 #24	6.4 #15	11.6 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.