Buccaneers @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sun, Nov 23, 2025, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff63°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6-4 · Power #18

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

8-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAR -7.5

✓ LAR W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 21–28 LAR

✓ LAR (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -6.5

CloseLAR -7.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -6.5

1 → LAR

CloseLAR -7.5

1 pt toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -6.5 · closed LAR -7.5 · moved 1 toward LARmodel LAR -2.5

model LAR -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 49% (93 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 31% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -6.5

CloseLAR -7.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 7.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 34–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 7.2; 51.6 points a game (usually 46.9). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET vs TB 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	24–9	W	U54.5
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	55–23	W	O47.5
Very close	BUF vs DEN 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–7	W	U48.5
Close	KC vs TB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	30–24	L	O45.5
Close	SEA vs ARI 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	44–22	W	O44.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Close	BAL vs WSH 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	30–23	L	O50.5
Close	IND vs ARI 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	31–27	L	O46.5
Close	LAR vs ARI 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	13–9	L	U48.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB WLWLL	5-5	50%	4-2	3-3
LAR WWWWL	7-3	70%	3-2	7-2

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OUUOO	6-4	60%	6-4
LAR UUUOU	4-6	40%	8-2

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 48% of games with totals 47.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
LAR	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 7–11 LAR LAR leads · 18 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+1.2 →+1.3▲ 0.1#12

LAR+0.2 →+4.4▲ 4.2#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

LAR

#17

Offense

LAR better ▶

#18

Defense

LAR better ▶

+0.9 #4

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #2

62 plays #13

Pace

Even

62 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	TB off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #9	17.2 #2	LAR
Yards / play	5.32 #19	4.96 #6	LAR
EPA / play	+0.03 #15	−0.10 #3	LAR
Success rate	42% #25	43% #13	LAR

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #6	25.0 #23	LAR
Yards / play	5.79 #7	5.63 #24	LAR
EPA / play	+0.11 #5	−0.03 #12	LAR
Success rate	50% #1	43% #11	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.3 #28	9.0 #4	12.3 #11	7.4 #2	5.5 #23	12.9 #9
LAR allowed	2.6 #2	5.9 #12	8.5 #3	3.0 #2	5.4 #7	8.4 #5

LAR scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	6.9 #4	6.6 #20	13.5 #7	5.9 #8	7.8 #9	13.7 #6
TB allowed	5.8 #27	6.7 #18	12.5 #20	5.1 #22	7.4 #21	12.5 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.