Panthers @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Mon, Nov 24, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 12 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff55°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

6-5 · Power #26

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

7-4 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -7

✓ SF W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 20–26 SF

✓ SF (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -7

CloseSF -7

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -7

no move

CloseSF -7

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -7 · unchangedmodel SF -5.5

model SF -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 75%, covered 52% (89 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -7

CloseSF -7

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 7-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 9 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SF won 20–9; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 48.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 56%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 6.8; 53.1 points a game (usually 46.5). Of the 9 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Very close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Very close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Very close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Very close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Very close	LAR vs ARI 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	13–9	L	U48.5
Very close	PHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	38–20	W	O43.5
Close	ARI vs NE 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-5.5	30–17	W	O46.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR WLWLW	7-4	64%	4-2	7-3
SF WLWLW	6-5	55%	1-3	4-2

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR UOUUO	6-5	55%	6-5
SF UUOOO	7-4	64%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 50% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
SF	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 10–6 SF CAR leads · 16 games since 1999 · SF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−3.5 →−3.4▲ 0.1#27

SF+0.9 →+1.2▲ 0.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CAR

Longer bar = better

#24

Offense

SF better ▶

#10

#18

Defense

◀ CAR better

#24

−0.4 #21

Turnovers

◀ CAR better

−0.5 #25

63 plays #10

Pace

Even

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #28	22.9 #16	SF
Yards / play	4.97 #27	5.65 #24	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #25	+0.08 #25	Even
Success rate	44% #17	49% #30	CAR

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #14	22.6 #14	Even
Yards / play	5.47 #13	5.61 #23	SF
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	+0.08 #24	SF
Success rate	49% #3	43% #10	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.5 #22	3.9 #30	7.5 #30	4.0 #19	7.1 #14	11.1 #21
SF allowed	3.5 #4	7.5 #21	11.0 #15	5.2 #23	6.7 #17	11.9 #19

SF scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	4.2 #18	8.0 #8	12.2 #12	4.4 #16	6.9 #17	11.3 #20
CAR allowed	3.5 #5	11.1 #32	14.6 #27	3.8 #10	4.2 #4	8.0 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.