49ers @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sun, Nov 30, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff35°F25 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

8-4 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Cleveland Browns

3-8 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

SF -5.5

✓ SF W

Total

35.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 20–14 CLE

✓ SF (69%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -6

CloseSF -5.5

Total39.5 → 35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -6

0.5 → CLE

CloseSF -5.5

0.5 pts toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open39.5

▼ 4

Close35.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -6 · closed SF -5.5 · moved 0.5 toward CLEmodel SF -5.5 matches the line

model SF -5.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 52% (61 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -6

CloseSF -5.5

Total39.5 → 35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 5.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 26–8; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 35.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 5; 35.8 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ CLE 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	23–16	L	O37.5
Close	PIT @ CLE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total	-3.5	19–24	L	O36.5
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Loose	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Loose	LAR @ TEN 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-5.5	33–19	W	O40.5
Loose	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Loose	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Loose	TB @ CAR 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	9–0	W	U36.5
Loose	GB @ NYG 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form	-5.5	22–24	L	O37

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF LWLWW	7-5	58%	5-2	5-2
CLE WLLWW	5-6	45%	4-0	4-5

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF UOOOU	7-5	58%	8-4
CLE OOOOU	6-5	55%	3-8

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 48% of games with totals 32.5–38.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CLE	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SF 3–4 CLE CLE leads · 7 games since 2003 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 15 2023	San Francisco 49ers 17 @ Cleveland Browns 19	SF -9.5	CLE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+1.3▲ 0.4#13

CLE−2.1 →−2.4▼ 0.3#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

CLE

#11

Offense

◀ SF better

#31

#22

Defense

CLE better ▶

−0.5 #27

Turnovers

CLE better ▶

+0.2 #13

64 plays #7

Pace

◀ SF faster

62 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	SF off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #15	22.2 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #15	4.68 #4	CLE
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	−0.12 #3	CLE
Success rate	49% #3	38% #2	Even

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	CLE off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	16.9 #29	21.8 #11	SF
Yards / play	4.16 #32	5.63 #24	SF
EPA / play	−0.19 #31	+0.07 #24	SF
Success rate	33% #32	49% #30	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	4.4 #16	7.6 #10	12.0 #12	4.6 #18	6.6 #18	11.2 #20
CLE allowed	4.3 #13	5.5 #7	9.8 #9	5.0 #21	7.4 #22	12.4 #22

CLE scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	4.4 #17	5.1 #27	9.5 #25	3.0 #25	4.5 #31	7.5 #31
SF allowed	3.2 #4	7.2 #20	10.3 #13	5.3 #23	6.2 #13	11.4 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.