Titans @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sun, Dec 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff34°F7 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

1-11 · Power #31

▲ winner

Final

Cleveland Browns

3-9 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

CLE -4.5

✓ TEN W

Total

33.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 16–21 CLE

✗ CLE (66%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCLE -4.5

CloseCLE -4.5

Total34.5 → 33.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLE -4.5

no move

CloseCLE -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open34.5

▼ 1

Close33.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLE -4.5 · unchangedmodel CLE -5.5

model CLE -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 53% (130 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCLE -4.5

CloseCLE -4.5

Total34.5 → 33.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 4.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TEN won 31–29 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 33.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.7 against an average line of 4.4; 33.5 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CAR vs NO 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	7–17	L	U38.5
Close	TEN vs NE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	20–17	L	U38.5
Close	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Close	CHI vs NE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	3–19	L	U37.5
Close	LV vs CLE 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–24	L	U36.5
Loose	LV vs TEN 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4.5	20–10	W	U41.5
Loose	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Loose	TEN vs CAR 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–10	W	U36
Loose	ATL vs CAR 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & rest	-4.5	27–30	L	O41.5
Loose	DEN vs LV 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	34–18	W	O35.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN LWWWL	5-7	42%	2-3	5-7
CLE LLWWL	5-7	42%	4-1	1-1

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; CLE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN OOUOU	7-5	58%	1-11
CLE OOOUU	6-6	50%	3-9

Went over in Q3. Of 15 earlier overs in games with totals 30.5–36.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
CLE	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TEN 11–7 CLE TEN leads · 18 games since 1999 · TEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 24 2023	Tennessee Titans 3 @ Cleveland Browns 27	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.8 →−6.8▼ 5.0#32

CLE−2.1 →−2.9▼ 0.8#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

TEN

Longer bar = better

CLE

#31

Offense

Even

#31

#26

Defense

CLE better ▶

−0.5 #27

Turnovers

CLE better ▶

0.0 #16

58 plays #26

Pace

CLE faster ▶

62 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	TEN off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	14.2 #32	22.5 #14	CLE
Yards / play	4.18 #31	4.61 #3	CLE
EPA / play	−0.20 #31	−0.11 #2	CLE
Success rate	37% #31	37% #2	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	16.2 #29	27.3 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.16 #32	5.75 #27	TEN
EPA / play	−0.19 #30	+0.11 #28	Even
Success rate	34% #32	45% #21	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.5 #25	3.2 #32	6.7 #32	2.8 #28	4.8 #28	7.5 #30
CLE allowed	4.5 #19	5.3 #6	9.8 #11	5.2 #23	7.5 #24	12.7 #24

CLE scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	4.0 #20	5.3 #27	9.3 #26	2.8 #28	4.1 #31	6.8 #31
TEN allowed	6.4 #29	7.3 #20	13.8 #25	7.8 #32	5.8 #12	13.6 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.