Bengals @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sun, Dec 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff30°F10 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

4-8 · Power #24

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

8-4 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -6

✓ CIN W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 23–29 BUF

✓ BUF (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -6.5

CloseBUF -6

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -6.5

0.5 → CIN

CloseBUF -6

0.5 pts toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -6.5 · closed BUF -6 · moved 0.5 toward CINmodel BUF -13

model BUF -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 74%, covered 55% (84 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -6.5

CloseBUF -6

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 6-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 39–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 6.7; 53.2 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL vs CIN 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-7	14–32	L	U52.5
Close	BUF vs MIA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Close	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Close	SF vs SEA 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	17–20	L	U48.5
Loose	ATL vs CAR 2024 · Week 18 · loose	-7.5	38–44	L	O48.5
Loose	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & situation	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5
Loose	TB vs LV 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	28–13	W	U47.5
Loose	NE vs NYG 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & spread	-7	33–15	W	O46.5
Loose	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LLLWW	5-7	42%	2-4	4-5
BUF WLWLW	6-6	50%	3-3	4-6

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OOUUU	7-5	58%	4-8
BUF UUOUU	5-7	42%	8-4

Went over in Q4. Of 14 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–57.5, 43% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
BUF	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 6–9 BUF BUF leads · 15 games since 2002 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 5 2023	Buffalo Bills 18 @ Cincinnati Bengals 24	CIN -2.5	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+0.5 →−3.8▼ 4.3#29

BUF+2.6 →+4.1▲ 1.5#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CIN

Longer bar = better

BUF

#21

Offense

BUF better ▶

#32

Defense

BUF better ▶

#14

−0.3 #19

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #18

61 plays #20

Pace

BUF faster ▶

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	CIN off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #16	21.6 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.16 #20	5.38 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #26	−0.02 #15	BUF
Success rate	43% #20	42% #7	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #5	31.2 #32	BUF
Yards / play	6.02 #4	6.28 #31	BUF
EPA / play	+0.12 #4	+0.16 #32	BUF
Success rate	47% #6	50% #32	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.1 #18	6.3 #21	10.4 #22	4.8 #15	8.1 #8	12.9 #9
BUF allowed	3.9 #9	8.8 #27	12.8 #23	3.0 #3	5.8 #12	8.8 #7

BUF scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.7 #8	6.9 #15	12.6 #10	7.3 #2	8.2 #7	15.5 #1
CIN allowed	5.3 #26	9.8 #30	15.0 #30	7.1 #31	9.1 #30	16.2 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.