Dolphins @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sun, Dec 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at New York Jets · Division game

Weather at kickoff40°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

5-7 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

3-9 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

✓ MIA W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 23–20 NYJ

✓ MIA (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -2.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -2.5

no move

CloseMIA -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -2.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -0.5

model MIA -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (139 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -2.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 2.5-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 34–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 2.8; 42.1 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	ATL @ NYJ 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	24–27	L	O38.5
Very close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Very close	MIA @ CAR 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Very close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & rest	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Very close	SEA @ CHI 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	6–3	L	U42.5
Very close	PIT @ NE 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	21–14	W	U44.5
Close	SF @ NYG 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	TEN @ JAX 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	13–20	L	U38.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WLWW–	6-5	55%	2-3	2-2
NYJ WWLWW	7-5	58%	3-3	7-3

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUUU	7-5	58%	5-7
NYJ OOUUO	7-5	58%	3-9

Went over in Q4. Of 171 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	5-5 50%	6-3 67%	6-4 60%
NYJ	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

MIA 28–26 NYJ MIA leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2025	New York Jets 21 @ Miami Dolphins 27	MIA -2.5	MIA W
Jan 5 2024	Miami Dolphins 20 @ New York Jets 32	NYJ -2.5	NYJ W
Dec 8 2024	New York Jets 26 @ Miami Dolphins 32	MIA -6.5	NYJ W
Dec 17 2023	New York Jets 0 @ Miami Dolphins 30	MIA -7	MIA W
Nov 24 2023	Miami Dolphins 34 @ New York Jets 13	MIA -8.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA0.0 →−2.6▼ 2.6#24

NYJ−1.0 →−3.7▼ 2.7#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MIA

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#23

Offense

Even

#25

Defense

NYJ better ▶

#20

−0.3 #24

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−1.0 #31

56 plays #30

Pace

NYJ faster ▶

59 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #24	26.3 #27	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #16	5.26 #16	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #22	+0.10 #27	MIA
Success rate	41% #28	42% #10	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #25	23.8 #19	MIA
Yards / play	4.72 #28	5.72 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #27	+0.08 #26	Even
Success rate	43% #21	48% #28	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	3.9 #21	7.3 #11	11.3 #18	2.3 #31	6.8 #15	9.1 #26
NYJ allowed	4.7 #20	9.9 #31	14.6 #27	5.7 #26	6.0 #14	11.7 #19

NYJ scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.5 #25	4.3 #28	7.8 #30	3.3 #25	9.4 #2	12.7 #10
MIA allowed	3.4 #5	5.8 #10	9.3 #6	6.5 #29	8.1 #25	14.6 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.