Saints @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sun, Nov 30, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff76°F9 mphgusts 22Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

2-9 · Power #23

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

4-7 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

—

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 18–23 MIA

✓ MIA (69%) won

Loading the recap…

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO LLLWL	3-8	27%	2-3	—
MIA LWLWW	6-5	55%	3-2	—

Venue/role: NO away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UUUUU	3-8	27%	2-9
MIA OOUUU	7-4	64%	4-7

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
MIA	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 3–3 MIA Series tied · 6 games since 2005 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.6 →−4.2▼ 2.6#29

MIA0.0 →−2.6▼ 2.6#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

MIA

#29

Offense

MIA better ▶

#22

#17

Defense

◀ NO better

#26

−0.4 #23

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #26

63 plays #10

Pace

◀ NO faster

56 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #31	24.5 #21	MIA
Yards / play	4.71 #29	5.87 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.14 #29	+0.11 #27	Even
Success rate	42% #27	48% #28	Even

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #24	24.9 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.39 #16	5.17 #9	NO
EPA / play	0.00 #18	0.00 #17	Even
Success rate	41% #28	45% #21	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.7 #32	7.5 #11	9.3 #28	2.1 #32	3.6 #32	5.7 #32
MIA allowed	3.7 #7	6.4 #14	10.1 #12	6.4 #29	8.0 #25	14.4 #30

MIA scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	3.6 #23	7.2 #15	10.8 #19	2.5 #30	7.0 #13	9.5 #26
NO allowed	7.7 #31	9.6 #29	17.4 #32	3.8 #9	3.7 #2	7.5 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.