Cardinals @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sun, Nov 30, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff82°F6 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

3-8 · Power #25

final

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6-5 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

TB -4.5

✓ ARI W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 22–26 TB

✓ TB (66%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -3

CloseTB -4.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -3

1.5 → TB

CloseTB -4.5

1.5 pts toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -3 · closed TB -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward TBmodel TB -3.5

model TB -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 53% (127 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (105 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -3

CloseTB -4.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 4.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 4.5; 48.1 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	37–10	W	O44.5
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	IND vs TEN 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	38–30	W	O43.5
Very close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Very close	LAR vs ARI 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-6.5	13–9	L	U48.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	17–19	L	U47.5
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WWLLL	5-6	45%	4-1	4-4
TB LWLLL	5-6	45%	1-3	2-2

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI OUOOO	7-4	64%	3-8
TB UUOOU	6-5	55%	6-5

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
TB	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 4–5 TB TB leads · 9 games since 2004 · TB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI+0.1 →−0.7▼ 0.8#18

TB+1.2 →+0.6▼ 0.6#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ARI

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

Even

#22

Defense

Even

#20

+0.4 #11

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+0.6 #5

66 plays #2

Pace

◀ ARI faster

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Even matchup

	ARI off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #18	25.8 #26	ARI
Yards / play	5.04 #25	5.67 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #22	−0.02 #14	TB
Success rate	43% #22	44% #16	TB

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #14	25.7 #25	TB
Yards / play	5.09 #22	5.41 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #21	0.00 #18	Even
Success rate	41% #29	47% #26	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.2 #12	7.1 #16	12.3 #11	5.0 #13	5.3 #24	10.3 #24
TB allowed	6.5 #29	7.6 #23	14.2 #26	4.6 #19	7.0 #18	11.6 #18

TB scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.0 #29	8.8 #6	11.8 #16	6.7 #4	5.0 #27	11.7 #14
ARI allowed	5.5 #25	7.1 #19	12.6 #22	3.5 #6	9.3 #29	12.8 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.