Steelers @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sun, Nov 9, 2025, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff65°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

5-3 · Power #19

final

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

6-3 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

✓ LAC W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 21–25 LAC

✓ LAC (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -3.5

CloseLAC -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -3.5

no move

CloseLAC -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -3.5 · unchangedmodel LAC -4.5

model LAC -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (182 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -3.5

CloseLAC -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 3.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: LAC won 25–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 3.4; 44.1 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Very close	SF vs LAR 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	6–12	L	U48.5
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	37–10	W	O44.5
Very close	HOU vs MIA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	20–12	W	U46.5
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT WWLLW	4-4	50%	1-2	2-1
LAC LLLWL	4-5	44%	2-2	3-5

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT OUOOU	5-3	63%	5-3
LAC UOOOO	5-4	56%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 52% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
LAC	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PIT 9–5 LAC PIT leads · 14 games since 2000 · LAC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 22 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 10 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 20	PIT -2.5	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT+0.5 →−1.4▼ 1.9#22

LAC+0.5 →+1.8▲ 1.3#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

PIT

Longer bar = better

LAC

#17

Offense

LAC better ▶

#12

#21

Defense

LAC better ▶

+1.1 #2

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.4 #23

56 plays #32

Pace

LAC faster ▶

66 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	PIT off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #13	21.4 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #23	5.16 #10	LAC
EPA / play	+0.04 #14	−0.02 #10	Even
Success rate	44% #19	41% #5	LAC

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #16	24.4 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.70 #11	5.55 #21	LAC
EPA / play	+0.05 #13	+0.06 #22	LAC
Success rate	47% #9	46% #22	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.0 #13	8.9 #5	13.9 #7	3.0 #25	8.4 #7	11.4 #19
LAC allowed	4.1 #12	6.8 #18	10.9 #13	6.2 #26	4.3 #5	10.6 #10

LAC scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.9 #9	6.7 #19	12.6 #10	5.8 #11	5.6 #22	11.3 #20
PIT allowed	4.1 #13	5.0 #5	9.1 #5	3.4 #5	11.9 #32	15.3 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.