Colts @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sun, Nov 2, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff54°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

7-1 · Power #13

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-3 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -3.5

✓ PIT W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 27–24 PIT

✗ IND (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -2.5

CloseIND -3.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -2.5

1 → IND

CloseIND -3.5

1 pt toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open48.5

▲ 3

Close51.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -2.5 · closed IND -3.5 · moved 1 toward INDmodel IND -2.5

model IND -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (110 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (41 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -2.5

CloseIND -3.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 3.5-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 27–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 3.3; 58.2 points a game (usually 44.3). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF @ LAR 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	42–44	L	O50.5
Very close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	DET @ SF 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	40–34	W	O50.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	BAL @ KC 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	20–37	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND LWLWW	6-2	75%	2-1	4-1
PIT WWWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: IND away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND UUOOO	5-3	63%	7-1
PIT UOUOO	5-2	71%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 23. 42% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
PIT	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

IND 4–12 PIT PIT leads · 16 games since 2002 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 24 @ Indianapolis Colts 27	PIT -2.5	IND W
Dec 16 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 13 @ Indianapolis Colts 30	IND -1	IND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.8 →+3.2▲ 4.0#5

PIT+0.5 →−1.7▼ 2.2#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

IND

Longer bar = better

PIT

Offense

◀ IND better

#14

Defense

◀ IND better

#23

+1.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ IND better

+0.6 #7

59 plays #23

Pace

◀ IND faster

55 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #1	25.0 #22	IND
Yards / play	6.54 #1	5.64 #24	IND
EPA / play	+0.24 #1	+0.08 #25	IND
Success rate	51% #1	46% #22	IND

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #12	19.3 #6	IND
Yards / play	5.42 #16	5.40 #17	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #11	−0.03 #10	Even
Success rate	45% #16	47% #24	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	6.5 #5	11.5 #2	18.0 #1	9.0 #1	6.8 #14	15.8 #4
PIT allowed	3.7 #12	5.7 #10	9.4 #8	3.9 #8	11.7 #32	15.6 #31

PIT scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.7 #10	7.7 #9	13.4 #8	3.4 #25	8.1 #8	11.6 #19
IND allowed	3.3 #7	4.6 #3	7.9 #4	5.3 #19	6.1 #13	11.4 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.