Saints @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sun, Nov 2, 2025, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff74°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

1-7 · Power #23

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

5-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAR -14.5

✓ LAR W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 15–29 LAR

✓ LAR (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -13.5

CloseLAR -14.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -13.5

1 → LAR

CloseLAR -14.5

1 pt toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -13.5 · closed LAR -14.5 · moved 1 toward LARmodel LAR -10.5

model LAR -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (90 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -13.5

CloseLAR -14.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 14.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 34–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 39%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.1 against an average line of 14; 46.5 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs NO 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	27–19	L	O44.5
Very close	BUF vs NO 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	31–19	L	O48.5
Close	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Close	BUF vs NE 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-14.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Close	GB vs NO 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-14.5	34–0	W	U43.5
Close	GB vs CIN 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	27–18	L	O44.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & spread	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Close	IND vs TEN 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	38–14	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLLL	2-6	25%	1-2	1-6
LAR LWLWW	5-2	71%	2-1	5-1

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OUUUU	3-5	38%	1-7
LAR OUOUU	3-4	43%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
LAR	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NO 9–14 LAR LAR leads · 23 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 1 2024	Los Angeles Rams 21 @ New Orleans Saints 14	LAR -2.5	LAR W
Dec 21 2023	New Orleans Saints 22 @ Los Angeles Rams 30	LAR -4	LAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.6 →−4.3▼ 2.7#31

LAR+0.2 →+3.2▲ 3.0#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

LAR

#28

Offense

LAR better ▶

#19

Defense

LAR better ▶

−0.3 #20

Turnovers

LAR better ▶

+0.4 #10

64 plays #10

Pace

◀ NO faster

61 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	NO off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #29	16.7 #3	LAR
Yards / play	4.65 #30	4.66 #4	LAR
EPA / play	−0.14 #29	−0.10 #3	LAR
Success rate	43% #24	42% #9	LAR

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #13	26.1 #24	LAR
Yards / play	5.88 #7	5.22 #11	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #10	+0.02 #20	LAR
Success rate	49% #5	45% #19	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	2.0 #32	7.4 #14	9.4 #27	2.9 #30	3.8 #32	6.6 #31
LAR allowed	3.3 #7	5.1 #7	8.4 #5	2.9 #3	5.0 #7	7.9 #3

LAR scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	4.9 #15	6.6 #20	11.4 #15	6.4 #8	7.1 #13	13.6 #8
NO allowed	8.5 #32	10.0 #29	18.5 #32	4.4 #14	3.3 #2	7.6 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.