Rams @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sun, Nov 9, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 10 · at San Francisco 49ers · Division game

Weather at kickoff75°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

6-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

San Francisco 49ers

6-3 · Power #10

final

Closing spread

LAR -6.5

✓ LAR W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 26–20 SF

✓ LAR (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -3.5

CloseLAR -6.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -3.5

3 → LAR

CloseLAR -6.5

3 pts toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -3.5 · closed LAR -6.5 · moved 3 toward LARmodel LAR -2

model LAR -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 46% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -3.5

CloseLAR -6.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 6.5-point road favorite at SF, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 42–26; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 5.3; 51.1 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ HOU 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	31–2	W	U47.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & team ratings	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Close	SF @ TB 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	23–20	L	U50.5
Close	GB @ ARI 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	27–23	L	O44.5
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Close	DAL @ JAX 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	34–40	L	O48
Loose	PHI @ ARI 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6	20–17	L	U48.5
Loose	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Loose	IND @ PIT 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	20–27	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WLWWW	6-2	75%	2-1	6-1
SF WLWLW	5-4	56%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; SF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UOUUU	3-5	38%	6-2
SF OOUUO	5-4	56%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 104 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–52.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
SF	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

LAR 24–31 SF (1 tied) SF leads · 56 games since 1999 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 2 2025	San Francisco 49ers 26 @ Los Angeles Rams 23	LAR -8.5	SF W
Dec 12 2024	Los Angeles Rams 12 @ San Francisco 49ers 6	SF -2.5	LAR W
Sep 22 2024	San Francisco 49ers 24 @ Los Angeles Rams 27	SF -6.5	LAR W
Jan 7 2023	Los Angeles Rams 21 @ San Francisco 49ers 20	SF -5.5	LAR W
Sep 17 2023	San Francisco 49ers 30 @ Los Angeles Rams 23	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.2 →+3.9▲ 3.7#4

SF+0.9 →+1.4▲ 0.5#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

LAR

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ LAR better

#14

Defense

◀ LAR better

#19

+0.6 #7

Turnovers

◀ LAR better

−0.7 #29

63 plays #11

Pace

SF faster ▶

66 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #8	20.9 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.85 #7	5.45 #20	LAR
EPA / play	+0.10 #6	+0.05 #21	LAR
Success rate	50% #2	47% #26	LAR

When SF has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	SF off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #23	15.9 #2	LAR
Yards / play	5.37 #15	4.73 #5	LAR
EPA / play	+0.05 #13	−0.11 #2	LAR
Success rate	48% #6	41% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	5.1 #12	7.4 #16	12.5 #11	6.5 #6	7.1 #13	13.6 #6
SF allowed	1.9 #2	8.1 #25	10.0 #9	5.6 #22	5.3 #10	10.9 #11

SF scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	3.7 #22	7.7 #11	11.3 #15	3.4 #23	6.4 #19	9.9 #26
LAR allowed	2.9 #4	5.8 #8	8.6 #3	2.5 #2	4.4 #6	6.9 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.