Jaguars @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sun, Nov 9, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Houston Texans · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

5-3 · Power #7

final

Final

Houston Texans

3-5 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

✓ HOU W

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 19–21 HOU

✓ HOU (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseHOU -2.5

Total39.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -1.5

1 → HOU

CloseHOU -2.5

1 pt toward Houston Texans

Total

Open39.5

▼ 1

Close38.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -1.5 · closed HOU -2.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel HOU -1.5

model HOU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (177 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (93 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseHOU -2.5

Total39.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 2.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: HOU won 36–29; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 38.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 2.9; 47.4 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs SF 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	26–15	W	U41.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	DEN vs LV 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	34–18	W	O35.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	SEA vs HOU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-3.5	27–19	W	O41.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–20	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WWLLL	4-4	50%	1-2	2-3
HOU WWLWL	3-5	38%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX OOUUO	4-4	50%	5-3
HOU UOOUU	2-6	25%	3-5

Went over in Q3. Of 103 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–41.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
HOU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

JAX 16–33 HOU HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2025	Houston Texans 10 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 17	JAX -1.5	JAX W
Dec 1 2024	Houston Texans 23 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 20	HOU -3.5	JAX W
Sep 29 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Houston Texans 24	HOU -5.5	JAX W
Nov 26 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 24 @ Houston Texans 21	JAX -1	JAX W
Sep 24 2023	Houston Texans 37 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX−2.1 →−0.9▲ 1.2#20

HOU+0.6 →+3.3▲ 2.7#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

JAX

Longer bar = better

HOU

#20

Offense

◀ JAX better

#25

#18

Defense

HOU better ▶

+1.0 #3

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #6

67 plays #1

Pace

◀ JAX faster

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	JAX off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #21	15.1 #1	HOU
Yards / play	5.07 #24	4.72 #4	HOU
EPA / play	+0.02 #18	−0.12 #1	HOU
Success rate	45% #16	39% #2	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	HOU off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #24	23.0 #18	JAX
Yards / play	5.05 #25	5.52 #22	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #21	0.00 #15	JAX
Success rate	41% #28	45% #15	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.9 #27	6.8 #20	9.6 #25	4.5 #18	7.0 #15	11.5 #18
HOU allowed	3.9 #11	3.5 #1	7.4 #2	4.8 #19	3.0 #1	7.8 #3

HOU scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.6 #23	7.1 #17	10.8 #19	3.3 #25	7.0 #15	10.3 #24
JAX allowed	4.3 #17	5.3 #6	9.5 #9	4.0 #11	8.8 #25	12.8 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.