Saints @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sun, Nov 9, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Carolina Panthers · Division game

Weather at kickoff74°F11 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

1-8 · Power #23

▲ winner

Final

Carolina Panthers

5-4 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

CAR -5.5

✓ NO W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 18–23 CAR

✗ CAR (69%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAR -5.5

CloseCAR -5.5

Total40.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAR -5.5

no move

CloseCAR -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open40.5

▼ 2

Close38.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAR -5.5 · unchangedmodel CAR -3.5

model CAR -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 53% (93 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAR -5.5

CloseCAR -5.5

Total40.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAR as a 5.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 17–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 38.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 5.2; 38.8 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CHI vs NE 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	3–19	L	U37.5
Very close	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Close	TEN vs NE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	20–17	L	U38.5
Close	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	23–9	W	U37.5
Close	ATL vs MIA 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	SEA vs NO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	44–13	W	O41.5
Close	CHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	36–10	W	O39.5
Close	LV vs TEN 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	20–10	W	U41.5
Close	IND vs TEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	38–30	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WLLLL	2-7	22%	1-3	1-7
CAR WWWLW	6-3	67%	3-1	—

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; CAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UUUUU	3-6	33%	1-8
CAR OOUOU	5-4	56%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 57% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
CAR	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

NO 31–24 CAR NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 3 2024	New Orleans Saints 22 @ Carolina Panthers 23	NO -7.5	CAR W
Sep 8 2024	Carolina Panthers 10 @ New Orleans Saints 47	NO -3.5	NO W
Dec 10 2023	Carolina Panthers 6 @ New Orleans Saints 28	NO -5.5	NO W
Sep 18 2023	New Orleans Saints 20 @ Carolina Panthers 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.6 →−4.8▼ 3.2#31

CAR−3.5 →−3.1▲ 0.4#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

CAR

#29

Offense

CAR better ▶

#23

#21

Defense

CAR better ▶

#18

−0.4 #23

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #22

61 plays #20

Pace

CAR faster ▶

63 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: CAR defense

	NO off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	15.3 #31	22.8 #16	CAR
Yards / play	4.72 #30	5.54 #23	CAR
EPA / play	−0.15 #29	+0.06 #24	CAR
Success rate	42% #26	42% #7	CAR

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #27	27.0 #24	Even
Yards / play	4.91 #28	5.28 #14	NO
EPA / play	−0.03 #24	+0.05 #22	Even
Success rate	46% #13	46% #23	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.8 #32	7.7 #11	9.4 #27	2.6 #31	3.3 #32	5.9 #32
CAR allowed	3.2 #6	11.2 #32	14.4 #26	4.7 #17	3.7 #3	8.3 #4

CAR scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	2.8 #29	4.4 #27	7.2 #29	3.9 #20	7.8 #8	11.7 #17
NO allowed	8.3 #32	10.3 #29	18.7 #32	4.7 #17	3.7 #3	8.3 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.