Panthers @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sun, Nov 2, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff47°F11 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

4-4 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Green Bay Packers

5-1-1 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

GB -13.5

✓ CAR W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 15–28 GB

✗ GB (89%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -11.5

CloseGB -13.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -11.5

2 → GB

CloseGB -13.5

2 pts toward Green Bay Packers

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -11.5 · closed GB -13.5 · moved 2 toward GBmodel GB -11

model GB -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (54 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -11.5

CloseGB -13.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 13.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CAR won 16–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.3 against an average line of 13.5; 44.7 points a game (usually 46.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Very close	TB vs NO 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	27–19	L	O44.5
Very close	GB vs NO 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-14.5	34–0	W	U43.5
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Close	BUF vs NE 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Close	KC vs WSH 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	28–7	W	U48.5
Close	BAL vs CLE 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest	-12.5	41–17	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LWWWL	5-3	63%	2-2	5-3
GB LLLLW	3-4	43%	2-1	3-4

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OOOUO	5-3	63%	4-4
GB UOOOO	4-3	57%	5-1-1

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
GB	5-4-1 56%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CAR 7–9 GB GB leads · 16 games since 1999 · CAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 24 2023	Green Bay Packers 33 @ Carolina Panthers 30	GB -3.5	CAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−3.5 →−3.4▲ 0.1#29

GB+2.2 →+3.7▲ 1.5#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CAR

Longer bar = better

#24

Offense

GB better ▶

#18

Defense

GB better ▶

−0.6 #27

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+0.1 #14

65 plays #5

Pace

◀ CAR faster

61 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	CAR off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #27	21.4 #10	GB
Yards / play	4.91 #29	4.57 #2	GB
EPA / play	−0.05 #26	−0.01 #14	GB
Success rate	45% #13	42% #8	GB

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #5	24.0 #20	GB
Yards / play	5.90 #5	5.50 #22	GB
EPA / play	+0.19 #2	+0.07 #23	GB
Success rate	49% #3	41% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.1 #26	4.1 #29	7.3 #28	3.6 #23	8.4 #6	12.0 #17
GB allowed	0.9 #1	6.4 #19	7.3 #1	3.9 #8	9.9 #29	13.7 #24

GB scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	4.4 #16	5.6 #26	10.0 #23	4.4 #17	12.7 #1	17.1 #1
CAR allowed	3.6 #11	11.9 #32	15.5 #28	5.3 #19	3.3 #2	8.5 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.