Eagles @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Mon, Nov 10, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff31°F9 mphgusts 17DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

6-2 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Green Bay Packers

5-2-1 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

GB -1.5

✓ PHI W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 17 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 21–23 GB

✗ GB (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -2.5

CloseGB -1.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -2.5

1 → PHI

CloseGB -1.5

1 pt toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -2.5 · closed GB -1.5 · moved 1 toward PHImodel GB -2

model GB -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 52% (99 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 43% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -2.5

CloseGB -1.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 1.5-point home favorite against PHI, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 10–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 17 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 3; 47.6 points a game (usually 43.5). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSH vs PIT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	27–28	L	O45.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	23–20	W	U45.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & situation	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Close	HOU vs MIA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	20–12	W	U46.5
Close	DEN vs IND 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	31–13	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI WLLWW	5-3	63%	3-1	—
GB LLLWL	3-5	38%	2-2	3-5

Venue/role: PHI away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUOOO	5-3	63%	6-2
GB OOOOU	4-4	50%	5-2-1

Stayed under: it needed 42 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
GB	5-4-1 56%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PHI 11–7 GB PHI leads · 18 games since 2000 · PHI has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 12 2024	Green Bay Packers 10 @ Philadelphia Eagles 22	PHI -5.5	PHI W
Sep 6 2024	Green Bay Packers 29 @ Philadelphia Eagles 34	PHI -1.5	PHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI+3.2 →+2.4▼ 0.8#10

GB+2.2 →+3.2▲ 1.0#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

PHI

Longer bar = better

#13

Offense

GB better ▶

#16

Defense

GB better ▶

+0.5 #9

Turnovers

◀ PHI better

0.0 #16

57 plays #27

Pace

GB faster ▶

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #10	20.8 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.32 #17	4.61 #2	GB
EPA / play	+0.09 #9	0.00 #13	Even
Success rate	45% #16	43% #12	Even

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #11	23.1 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.90 #6	5.37 #16	GB
EPA / play	+0.17 #2	0.00 #14	GB
Success rate	50% #4	45% #17	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	7.8 #2	7.8 #10	15.5 #5	5.5 #12	5.0 #26	10.5 #24
GB allowed	0.8 #1	6.5 #16	7.3 #1	4.1 #13	9.0 #27	13.1 #23

GB scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	3.9 #20	5.6 #24	9.5 #26	3.9 #20	12.0 #1	15.9 #1
PHI allowed	5.8 #26	6.0 #13	11.8 #21	5.1 #19	6.3 #14	11.4 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.