Ravens @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sun, Nov 9, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

3-5 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota Vikings

4-4 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

BAL -4.5

✓ BAL W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 26–22 MIN

✓ BAL (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -4.5

CloseBAL -4.5

Total45.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -4.5

no move

CloseBAL -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▲ 4

Close49.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -4.5 · unchangedmodel MIN -0.5

model MIN -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (76 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -4.5

CloseBAL -4.5

Total45.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 4.5-point road favorite at MIN, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 27–19; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 3.8; 42.2 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN @ DAL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	27–20	W	U50.5
Close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar season form	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Close	SF @ NYG 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Close	BAL @ MIA 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-7.5	28–6	W	U51.5
Loose	SEA @ WSH 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	38–14	W	O47.5
Loose	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Loose	LAC @ ARI 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3	25–24	L	P49
Loose	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & situation	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Loose	KC @ NYG 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread	-5.5	22–9	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LLLWW	3-5	38%	1-2	3-3
MIN LWLLW	4-4	50%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; MIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OOUOU	6-2	75%	3-5
MIN OOOOO	7-1	88%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
MIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BAL 5–2 MIN BAL leads · 7 games since 2001 · BAL has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.6 →+1.7▼ 1.9#13

MIN+1.0 →−0.5▼ 1.5#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

BAL

Longer bar = better

MIN

#14

Offense

◀ BAL better

#22

#26

Defense

MIN better ▶

#13

−0.4 #19

Turnovers

◀ BAL better

−0.5 #27

55 plays #32

Pace

MIN faster ▶

57 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #13	23.3 #20	BAL
Yards / play	5.79 #8	5.29 #15	BAL
EPA / play	+0.03 #16	−0.02 #10	MIN
Success rate	45% #19	42% #8	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	27.0 #25	MIN
Yards / play	5.08 #23	5.67 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.10 #28	+0.10 #25	Even
Success rate	44% #20	47% #27	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	4.1 #16	6.4 #22	10.5 #21	7.6 #3	7.1 #13	14.8 #5
MIN allowed	6.0 #26	5.9 #11	11.9 #22	4.6 #15	6.8 #18	11.4 #17

MIN scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	5.1 #12	5.5 #25	10.6 #20	5.6 #12	6.5 #19	12.1 #14
BAL allowed	4.1 #14	7.0 #18	11.1 #16	6.8 #27	9.1 #27	15.9 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.