Patriots @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sun, Nov 9, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff74°F6 mphgusts 23Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

7-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6-2 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

TB -2.5

✓ NE W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 22–24 TB

✗ TB (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -2.5

CloseTB -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -2.5

no move

CloseTB -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -2.5 · unchangedmodel TB -3.5

model TB -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (177 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -2.5

CloseTB -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 2.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 28–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 48.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 3.2; 55.3 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 8 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs PIT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	38–44	L	O46.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Close	HOU vs MIA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	20–12	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WWWWL	6-3	67%	4-0	2-1
TB LWWLW	5-3	63%	1-2	2-1

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UUOOO	5-4	56%	7-2
TB OOOUU	4-4	50%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 124 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
TB	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 5–2 TB NE leads · 7 games since 2000 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−2.3 →+0.6▲ 2.9#15

TB+1.2 →+1.9▲ 0.7#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ NE better

#19

#12

Defense

Even

#11

0.0 #16

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+0.9 #4

61 plays #16

Pace

Even

61 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #7	22.3 #15	NE
Yards / play	5.71 #11	5.19 #11	Even
EPA / play	+0.10 #8	−0.08 #5	Even
Success rate	46% #10	43% #13	Even

When TB has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	TB off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #14	18.8 #6	NE
Yards / play	5.27 #19	5.41 #18	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #17	−0.03 #8	NE
Success rate	41% #27	44% #14	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	6.2 #7	8.8 #6	15.0 #5	7.0 #6	4.3 #30	11.3 #20
TB allowed	5.5 #23	5.8 #8	11.3 #17	4.3 #13	6.8 #18	11.0 #12

TB scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.9 #27	8.8 #7	11.6 #14	7.8 #2	5.3 #23	13.0 #10
NE allowed	5.6 #24	4.9 #4	10.4 #13	2.6 #2	5.8 #11	8.3 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.