Buccaneers @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff39°F21 mphgusts 37DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6-3 · Power #18

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

6-3 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -6.5

✓ BUF W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 76 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 19–25 BUF

✓ BUF (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -5.5

CloseBUF -6.5

Total50.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -5.5

1 → BUF

CloseBUF -6.5

1 pt toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open50.5

▼ 6

Close44.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -5.5 · closed BUF -6.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel BUF -4.5

model BUF -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 50% (112 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (96 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -5.5

CloseBUF -6.5

Total50.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 6.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 44–32; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 76 points went over 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 6.4; 50.2 points a game (usually 46). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	CHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	24–20	L	U44.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Loose	SF vs MIA 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5	33–17	W	O45.5
Loose	PHI vs GB 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-6.5	40–33	W	O46
Loose	DAL vs LAR 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-7	43–20	W	O44.5
Loose	BAL vs SEA 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-6	37–3	W	U44
Loose	KC vs CIN 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	25–17	W	U46
Loose	CIN vs ATL 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6	35–17	W	O48
Loose	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	24–17	L	O40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB WWLWL	5-4	56%	4-1	3-2
BUF LLWWL	4-5	44%	2-3	2-5

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OOUUO	5-4	56%	6-3
BUF UUOUU	4-5	44%	6-3

Went over in Q3. Of 203 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
BUF	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TB 4–4 BUF Series tied · 8 games since 2000 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18 @ Buffalo Bills 24	BUF -10	TB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+1.2 →+1.5▲ 0.3#13

BUF+2.6 →+3.3▲ 0.7#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

BUF

#17

Offense

BUF better ▶

#13

Defense

◀ TB better

#16

+0.9 #3

Turnovers

◀ TB better

+0.2 #12

62 plays #16

Pace

Even

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #11	21.9 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.31 #17	5.59 #24	TB
EPA / play	+0.02 #17	+0.02 #18	Even
Success rate	42% #23	43% #12	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #6	22.9 #14	BUF
Yards / play	6.10 #3	5.43 #19	BUF
EPA / play	+0.15 #4	−0.05 #8	Even
Success rate	49% #5	43% #11	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.3 #26	8.1 #7	11.4 #14	7.6 #2	5.4 #23	13.0 #10
BUF allowed	4.6 #17	7.2 #22	11.8 #22	3.0 #2	7.1 #19	10.1 #8

BUF scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	6.1 #6	6.2 #23	12.3 #12	7.2 #3	8.0 #9	15.2 #2
TB allowed	5.7 #25	5.9 #11	11.6 #18	4.6 #17	6.8 #16	11.3 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.