Packers @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sun, Nov 16, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at New York Giants

Weather at kickoff52°F16 mphgusts 37DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

5-3-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

New York Giants

2-8 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

GB -7.5

✓ NYG W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 23–15 NYG

✓ GB (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -7.5

CloseGB -7.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -7.5

no move

CloseGB -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -7.5 · unchangedmodel GB -10.5

model GB -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 46% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -7.5

CloseGB -7.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 7.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 27–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 6.7; 42.7 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	17–34	L	O41.5
Close	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Close	LAC @ NYG 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-5.5	18–21	L	U43.5
Close	LAR @ BAL 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	17–3	W	U44.5
Close	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & total	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Close	GB @ CLE 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	10–13	L	U40.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	GB @ DAL 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	40–40	L	O46.5
Close	NE @ TEN 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	31–13	W	O41.5
Close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LLWLL	3-6	33%	1-3	3-6
NYG WWLLW	5-5	50%	2-2	5-5

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OOOUU	4-5	44%	5-3-1
NYG OOOOU	5-5	50%	2-8

Went over in Q4. Of 183 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	5-4-1 56%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
NYG	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GB 8–7 NYG GB leads · 15 games since 2001 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 11 2023	Green Bay Packers 22 @ New York Giants 24	GB -5.5	NYG W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+2.2 →+2.8▲ 0.6#8

NYG−2.6 →−3.2▼ 0.6#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

NYG

#10

Offense

◀ GB better

#24

Defense

◀ GB better

#28

−0.1 #18

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−0.4 #22

62 plays #17

Pace

NYG faster ▶

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #15	27.3 #27	GB
Yards / play	5.66 #11	5.88 #28	GB
EPA / play	+0.13 #6	+0.12 #28	GB
Success rate	48% #6	48% #29	GB

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	NYG off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #24	19.6 #7	GB
Yards / play	5.21 #21	4.64 #3	GB
EPA / play	−0.01 #22	−0.01 #14	GB
Success rate	42% #27	42% #7	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	3.4 #24	5.0 #26	8.4 #27	3.4 #23	11.4 #1	14.9 #5
NYG allowed	4.4 #14	7.7 #23	12.1 #24	3.4 #6	11.5 #31	14.9 #29

NYG scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	5.4 #11	5.5 #24	10.9 #16	4.0 #19	6.8 #17	10.8 #22
GB allowed	0.7 #1	5.8 #9	6.4 #1	4.0 #11	8.8 #26	12.8 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.