Vikings @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sun, Nov 23, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Green Bay Packers · Division game

Weather at kickoff45°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

4-6 · Power #17

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

6-3-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -6.5

✓ GB W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 18–25 GB

✓ GB (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -6

CloseGB -6.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -6

0.5 → GB

CloseGB -6.5

0.5 pts toward Green Bay Packers

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -6 · closed GB -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward GBmodel GB -10

model GB -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 51% (114 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -6

CloseGB -6.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 6.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 23–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 41.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 7.1; 49.7 points a game (usually 46). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	38–20	W	O43.5
Very close	DEN vs NYG 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	33–32	L	O40.5
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	30–12	W	U43.5
Very close	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Very close	NE vs CLE 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	32–13	W	O40.5
Close	KC vs DEN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	16–14	L	U41.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN LLWLL	4-6	40%	2-1	2-3
GB LWLLL	3-7	30%	2-3	3-7

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OOOUU	7-3	70%	4-6
GB OOUUO	5-5	50%	6-3-1

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 52% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
GB	6-3-1 67%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

MIN 24–31 GB (2 tied) GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 29 2024	Green Bay Packers 25 @ Minnesota Vikings 27	GB -0.5	MIN W
Sep 29 2024	Minnesota Vikings 31 @ Green Bay Packers 29	GB -2.5	MIN W
Dec 31 2023	Green Bay Packers 33 @ Minnesota Vikings 10	GB -1	GB W
Oct 29 2023	Minnesota Vikings 24 @ Green Bay Packers 10	Pick’em	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+1.0 →−1.0▼ 2.0#20

GB+2.2 →+2.7▲ 0.5#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MIN

Longer bar = better

#23

Offense

GB better ▶

#12

Defense

GB better ▶

−0.9 #31

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+0.1 #13

57 plays #27

Pace

GB faster ▶

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	MIN off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	19.6 #7	GB
Yards / play	5.16 #22	4.67 #3	GB
EPA / play	−0.11 #28	+0.01 #16	GB
Success rate	43% #21	43% #8	GB

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #14	23.2 #16	Even
Yards / play	5.68 #11	5.14 #9	Even
EPA / play	+0.15 #3	−0.02 #13	GB
Success rate	48% #5	43% #11	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	5.1 #12	4.7 #28	9.8 #25	4.8 #16	7.2 #14	12.0 #16
GB allowed	1.3 #1	5.8 #10	7.1 #1	3.6 #8	8.6 #26	12.2 #20

GB scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	3.1 #28	5.8 #23	8.9 #28	3.7 #21	11.1 #1	14.8 #4
MIN allowed	5.1 #22	6.3 #15	11.4 #17	5.3 #23	6.5 #15	11.8 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.