Giants @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sun, Oct 19, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff73°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

New York Giants

2-4 · Power #22

final

Final

Denver Broncos

4-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -7.5

✓ NYG W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

NYG 17–25 DEN

✓ DEN (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -7.5

CloseDEN -7.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -7.5

no move

CloseDEN -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▼ 2

Close40.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -7.5 · unchangedmodel DEN -7.5 matches the line

model DEN -7.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 47% (85 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -7.5

CloseDEN -7.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 7.5-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 33–32; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 40.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 56%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 7.2; 50.5 points a game (usually 46.5). Of the 9 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Very close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Very close	PIT vs NYG 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	26–18	W	O37.5
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	CHI vs NE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	3–19	L	U37.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	SEA vs NO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	44–13	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG WLWLW	3-3	50%	1-2	3-3
DEN LLWWL	2-4	33%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG OUUUO	2-4	33%	2-4
DEN OUUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 134 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYG	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
DEN	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYG 2–5 DEN DEN leads · 7 games since 2001 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−2.6 →−2.8▼ 0.2#24

DEN+0.4 →+2.3▲ 1.9#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

NYG

Longer bar = better

DEN

#26

Offense

DEN better ▶

#21

#24

Defense

DEN better ▶

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #25

66 plays #4

Pace

◀ NYG faster

63 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	NYG off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	20.2 #26	15.8 #2	DEN
Yards / play	5.00 #25	4.27 #1	DEN
EPA / play	−0.08 #28	−0.14 #1	DEN
Success rate	42% #24	36% #1	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #21	24.0 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.32 #21	5.72 #27	DEN
EPA / play	+0.04 #15	+0.05 #25	DEN
Success rate	42% #26	47% #23	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYG scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	5.5 #12	6.0 #21	11.5 #14	3.5 #22	5.2 #24	8.7 #28
DEN allowed	4.0 #14	5.7 #13	9.7 #10	3.5 #10	2.7 #2	6.2 #2

DEN scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	5.0 #13	7.0 #13	12.0 #12	3.3 #26	6.3 #18	9.7 #21
NYG allowed	3.8 #11	8.8 #25	12.7 #23	4.2 #15	6.7 #18	10.8 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.