Raiders @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sun, Oct 19, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Kansas City Chiefs · Division game

Weather at kickoff57°F8 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

2-4 · Power #30

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

3-3 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -13.5

✓ KC W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 15–28 KC

✓ KC (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -10.5

CloseKC -13.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -10.5

3 → KC

CloseKC -13.5

3 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -10.5 · closed KC -13.5 · moved 3 toward KCmodel KC -8.5

model KC -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (50 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -10.5

CloseKC -13.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 13.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 31–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.1 against an average line of 13.3; 44.7 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	TB vs NO 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	27–19	L	O44.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Close	GB vs NO 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	34–0	W	U43.5
Close	DET vs CLE 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	34–10	W	U44.5
Loose	BUF vs NO 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-14.5	31–19	L	O48.5
Loose	BUF vs NE 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Loose	CIN vs CLE 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	24–6	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV LLLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	1-3
KC LWWLW	3-3	50%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UOOUU	2-4	33%	2-4
KC UUOOU	3-3	50%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 50% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

LV 19–36 KC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2024	Las Vegas Raiders 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 19	KC -13.5	LV W
Oct 27 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 27 @ Las Vegas Raiders 20	KC -8.5	LV W
Dec 25 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 14	KC -11	LV W
Nov 26 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 31 @ Las Vegas Raiders 17	KC -9	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−2.0 →−3.4▼ 1.4#29

KC+1.3 →+3.1▲ 1.8#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

#28

Offense

KC better ▶

#15

Defense

◀ LV better

#19

−0.7 #29

Turnovers

KC better ▶

+0.7 #6

61 plays #18

Pace

KC faster ▶

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LV off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #30	20.7 #11	KC
Yards / play	5.07 #24	5.48 #19	KC
EPA / play	−0.14 #30	+0.02 #19	KC
Success rate	42% #29	47% #25	Even

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #9	24.8 #23	KC
Yards / play	5.73 #11	5.23 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	0.00 #12	KC
Success rate	50% #2	44% #16	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.3 #18	4.0 #28	8.3 #27	4.0 #20	4.8 #27	8.8 #26
KC allowed	4.0 #11	5.3 #11	9.3 #10	4.5 #15	6.8 #17	11.3 #14

KC scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.2 #26	8.8 #5	12.0 #11	5.0 #11	8.8 #8	13.8 #8
LV allowed	4.5 #17	8.2 #24	12.7 #22	7.8 #31	4.3 #5	12.2 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.