Commanders @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sun, Oct 19, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Dallas Cowboys · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

3-3 · Power #27

final

Final

Dallas Cowboys

2-3-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

DAL -2.5

✓ DAL W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 26–28 DAL

✓ DAL (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -2.5

CloseDAL -2.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -2.5

5 → DAL

CloseDAL -2.5

5 pts toward Dallas Cowboys

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -2.5 · closed DAL -2.5 · moved 5 toward DALmodel WSH -2

model WSH -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (170 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 58% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -2.5

CloseDAL -2.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like DAL as a 2.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 44–22; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 9 similar games. 66 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 9.

Favorite won

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 2.1; 52.6 points a game (usually 44). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	DET vs MIN 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	34–23	W	O51.5
Loose	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Loose	DET vs JAX 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & situation	-1	40–14	W	O51
Loose	ARI vs SEA 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2	21–31	L	O49
Loose	DET vs LAR 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	24–23	L	U53
Loose	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Loose	NYJ vs DAL 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	22–37	L	O47.5
Loose	LV vs CHI 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–25	L	O46.5
Loose	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLWL	3-3	50%	1-2	1-2
DAL LLWWL	3-3	50%	1-1	0-3

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UOOUO	3-3	50%	3-3
DAL OUOOO	4-2	67%	2-3-1

Went over in Q3. Of 10 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–57.5, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
DAL	4-5-1 44%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

WSH 16–39 DAL DAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 5 2024	Washington Commanders 23 @ Dallas Cowboys 19	WSH -7.5	DAL W
Nov 24 2024	Dallas Cowboys 34 @ Washington Commanders 26	WSH -10.5	DAL W
Jan 7 2023	Dallas Cowboys 38 @ Washington Commanders 10	DAL -13	DAL W
Nov 23 2023	Washington Commanders 10 @ Dallas Cowboys 45	DAL -13	DAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.7 →+1.4▲ 0.7#14

DAL−1.0 →−1.4▼ 0.4#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WSH

Longer bar = better

DAL

Offense

Even

#20

Defense

◀ WSH better

#31

−0.5 #24

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #22

58 plays #26

Pace

DAL faster ▶

64 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #7	30.7 #31	WSH
Yards / play	5.93 #6	6.17 #30	WSH
EPA / play	+0.09 #9	+0.20 #31	WSH
Success rate	48% #8	52% #31	WSH

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #3	21.0 #13	DAL
Yards / play	6.04 #4	5.72 #28	DAL
EPA / play	+0.17 #3	+0.04 #23	DAL
Success rate	48% #9	44% #15	DAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.3 #31	8.3 #8	10.7 #19	6.7 #5	9.0 #7	15.7 #3
DAL allowed	6.7 #30	7.8 #22	14.5 #28	5.0 #20	10.7 #31	15.7 #30

DAL scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	2.7 #28	14.0 #1	16.7 #2	4.7 #17	7.3 #13	12.0 #16
WSH allowed	6.0 #26	5.2 #9	11.2 #18	3.8 #12	6.0 #13	9.8 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.