Cowboys @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sun, Oct 26, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff71°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

3-3-1 · Power #21

final

Final

Denver Broncos

5-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -4.5

✓ DEN W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 22–27 DEN

✓ DEN (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -2.5

CloseDEN -4.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -2.5

2 → DEN

CloseDEN -4.5

2 pts toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open48.5

▲ 3

Close51.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -2.5 · closed DEN -4.5 · moved 2 toward DENmodel DEN -3

model DEN -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (116 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (39 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -2.5

CloseDEN -4.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 4.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: DEN won 44–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 4; 46.2 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	DET vs TB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	24–9	W	U54.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Loose	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Loose	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Loose	ATL vs DAL 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & rest	-3.5	27–21	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL LWWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	3-0
DEN LWWLL	2-5	29%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL UOOOO	5-2	71%	3-3-1
DEN UUUUO	2-5	29%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 39 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–54.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	4-5-1 44%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
DEN	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DAL 0–7 DEN DEN leads · 7 games since 2001 · DEN has won the last 7 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL−1.0 →−0.3▲ 0.7#19

DEN+0.4 →+1.9▲ 1.5#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

DAL

Longer bar = better

DEN

Offense

◀ DAL better

#18

#30

Defense

DEN better ▶

0.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ DAL better

−0.3 #21

64 plays #10

Pace

Even

65 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #2	18.1 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.12 #2	4.49 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	−0.10 #2	Even
Success rate	46% #9	36% #1	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: DEN offense

	DEN off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #17	29.4 #30	DEN
Yards / play	5.33 #18	6.06 #30	DEN
EPA / play	+0.05 #10	+0.14 #29	DEN
Success rate	42% #25	50% #32	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	4.7 #14	13.4 #1	18.1 #1	6.0 #10	6.7 #16	12.7 #13
DEN allowed	4.4 #17	5.7 #11	10.1 #14	3.9 #8	4.1 #5	8.0 #4

DEN scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.3 #15	6.0 #21	10.3 #22	2.9 #31	10.1 #3	13.0 #10
DAL allowed	6.9 #29	7.7 #24	14.6 #28	5.3 #19	9.1 #26	14.4 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.