Cardinals @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Mon, Nov 3, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Dallas Cowboys

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

2-5 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Dallas Cowboys

3-4-1 · Power #21

final

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

✓ ARI W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 24–27 DAL

✗ DAL (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDAL -2.5

CloseDAL -3.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDAL -2.5

1 → DAL

CloseDAL -3.5

1 pt toward Dallas Cowboys

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DAL -2.5 · closed DAL -3.5 · moved 1 toward DALmodel DAL -1

model DAL -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 56% (178 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (44 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDAL -2.5

CloseDAL -3.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 3.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ARI won 27–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 64%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 6.1 against an average line of 3.1; 49.9 points a game (usually 44.3). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	LAR vs MIA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-2.5	15–23	L	U50.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Close	ATL vs DAL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	27–21	W	U51.5
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	CIN vs PIT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	38–44	L	O46.5
Loose	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Loose	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WLLWW	4-3	57%	3-0	3-1
DAL WWLWL	4-4	50%	2-1	1-3

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UUOOO	4-3	57%	2-5
DAL OOOOO	6-2	75%	3-4-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 48% of games with totals 50.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
DAL	3-6-1 33%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARI 12–7 DAL ARI leads · 19 games since 1999 · ARI has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 24 2023	Dallas Cowboys 16 @ Arizona Cardinals 28	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI+0.1 →−0.5▼ 0.6#18

DAL−1.0 →−1.0–#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ARI

Longer bar = better

DAL

#24

Offense

DAL better ▶

#17

Defense

◀ ARI better

#31

−0.1 #17

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #16

63 plays #13

Pace

DAL faster ▶

64 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #22	31.3 #31	ARI
Yards / play	4.93 #27	6.21 #30	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #20	+0.16 #31	ARI
Success rate	41% #28	51% #31	Even

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #2	22.0 #12	DAL
Yards / play	5.97 #4	5.25 #13	DAL
EPA / play	+0.14 #5	+0.02 #18	DAL
Success rate	47% #7	47% #25	DAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.7 #10	6.7 #20	12.4 #13	5.3 #14	4.1 #31	9.4 #26
DAL allowed	7.8 #31	8.4 #26	16.1 #29	5.0 #20	9.8 #28	14.8 #27

DAL scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	4.5 #16	12.6 #1	17.1 #1	6.1 #8	6.8 #18	12.9 #12
ARI allowed	2.9 #3	5.6 #7	8.4 #4	2.7 #3	10.9 #30	13.6 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.