Commanders @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sun, Oct 5, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff79°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

2-2 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

3-1 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

✓ WSH W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 22–25 LAC

✗ LAC (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -3.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -2.5

1 → LAC

CloseLAC -3.5

1 pt toward Los Angeles Chargers

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -2.5 · closed LAC -3.5 · moved 1 toward LACmodel WSH -0.5

model WSH -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (164 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -3.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 3.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 27–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.3 against an average line of 3.4; 50.3 points a game (usually 44). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Very close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	23–20	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WLWL	2-2	50%	0-2	0-2
LAC WWWL	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUOO	2-2	50%	2-2
LAC OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
LAC	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 2–5 LAC LAC leads · 7 games since 2001 · WSH has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.7 →+1.1▲ 0.4#14

LAC+0.5 →+1.8▲ 1.3#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WSH

Longer bar = better

LAC

Offense

◀ WSH better

#16

#20

Defense

LAC better ▶

−0.3 #20

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

−0.5 #24

59 plays #23

Pace

LAC faster ▶

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #8	17.8 #4	Even
Yards / play	5.77 #7	4.50 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.10 #8	−0.11 #4	Even
Success rate	47% #9	37% #1	LAC

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #20	22.8 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.63 #9	5.67 #23	LAC
EPA / play	+0.02 #18	+0.06 #24	LAC
Success rate	45% #15	43% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.5 #24	8.3 #10	11.8 #16	5.0 #11	10.0 #5	15.0 #5
LAC allowed	2.5 #4	5.5 #13	8.0 #5	6.0 #29	3.8 #5	9.8 #10

LAC scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.0 #12	7.5 #14	12.5 #13	5.3 #9	4.3 #28	9.5 #23
WSH allowed	5.0 #20	6.0 #15	11.0 #16	5.0 #19	6.8 #17	11.8 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.