Commanders @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

2-1 · Power #27

final

Final

Atlanta Falcons

1-2 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

✓ ATL W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 21–23 ATL

✓ ATL (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -3.5

CloseATL -2.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -3.5

6 → ATL

CloseATL -2.5

6 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -3.5 · closed ATL -2.5 · moved 6 toward ATLmodel ATL -4.5

model ATL -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (154 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 38% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -3.5

CloseATL -2.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 2.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 34–27; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 44.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 45%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 2.8; 52.1 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NYJ vs MIA 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	32–20	W	O39.5
Close	ARI vs SF 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	47–24	W	O42.5
Loose	KC vs HOU 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	27–19	W	O42.5
Loose	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · loose	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5
Loose	TB vs BAL 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings	-2	22–27	L	O46.5
Loose	MIN vs NYJ 2022 · Week 13 · loose	-3	27–22	W	O44
Loose	ARI vs SEA 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2	21–31	L	O49
Loose	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	29–10	W	U44
Loose	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Loose	ARI vs NO 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	42–34	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	0-1
ATL LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUO	1-2	33%	2-1
ATL UUU	0-3	0%	1-2

Went over in Q3. Of 164 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ATL	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WSH 5–7 ATL ATL leads · 12 games since 2003 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 29 2024	Atlanta Falcons 24 @ Washington Commanders 30	WSH -3.5	WSH W
Oct 15 2023	Washington Commanders 24 @ Atlanta Falcons 16	ATL -2.5	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.7 →+1.4▲ 0.7#11

ATL−0.4 →+0.3▲ 0.7#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

WSH

Longer bar = better

ATL

Offense

◀ WSH better

#25

#14

Defense

ATL better ▶

−0.3 #22

Turnovers

ATL better ▶

+0.3 #11

61 plays #17

Pace

ATL faster ▶

67 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #7	19.7 #13	WSH
Yards / play	5.77 #6	4.34 #3	Even
EPA / play	+0.09 #6	−0.10 #5	Even
Success rate	46% #8	42% #13	WSH

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: WSH defense

	ATL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #31	19.0 #12	WSH
Yards / play	5.08 #21	5.29 #17	Even
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	−0.01 #17	WSH
Success rate	41% #21	40% #8	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.7 #13	7.7 #11	12.3 #15	4.7 #10	9.7 #6	14.3 #5
ATL allowed	2.3 #4	6.3 #16	8.7 #7	5.7 #25	5.3 #10	11.0 #16

ATL scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.3 #15	2.0 #31	6.3 #30	2.0 #27	5.7 #23	7.7 #30
WSH allowed	3.3 #6	5.7 #12	9.0 #9	2.0 #4	8.0 #20	10.0 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.