Eagles @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff89°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

3-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-0 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

✓ PHI W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 25–22 TB

✓ PHI (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -2.5

ClosePHI -3.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -2.5

1 → PHI

ClosePHI -3.5

1 pt toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -2.5 · closed PHI -3.5 · moved 1 toward PHImodel TB -1

model TB -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (99 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 38% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -2.5

ClosePHI -3.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 3.5-point road favorite at TB, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 31–25; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 3.4; 46.7 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAC @ HOU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	12–32	L	O41.5
Close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Close	BUF @ SEA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	31–10	W	U45.5
Close	SEA @ NE 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	23–20	L	O39.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Loose	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · loose	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1
TB WWL	2-1	67%	0-1	2-0

Venue/role: PHI away, as favorite; TB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI UUO	1-2	33%	3-0
TB UUO	1-2	33%	3-0

Went over in Q3. Of 156 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
TB	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

PHI 9–10 TB TB leads · 19 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2024	Philadelphia Eagles 16 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33	PHI -0.5	TB W
Jan 15 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 9 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32	PHI -3	TB W
Sep 25 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 25 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI+3.2 →+2.7▼ 0.5#5

TB+1.2 →+1.4▲ 0.2#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

PHI

Longer bar = better

#15

Offense

Even

#15

#17

Defense

Even

#14

+0.7 #9

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #7

61 plays #19

Pace

TB faster ▶

64 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	22.0 #17	PHI
Yards / play	4.40 #27	4.95 #13	TB
EPA / play	+0.06 #11	−0.06 #11	Even
Success rate	45% #14	43% #16	Even

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #12	21.0 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.04 #22	5.35 #18	Even
EPA / play	+0.09 #5	−0.05 #12	TB
Success rate	41% #22	45% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	7.0 #5	5.7 #21	12.7 #13	6.7 #3	6.3 #20	13.0 #8
TB allowed	6.7 #24	2.0 #1	8.7 #7	1.0 #2	12.3 #31	13.3 #25

TB scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.3 #24	11.3 #1	14.7 #7	3.3 #19	6.0 #21	9.3 #22
PHI allowed	5.7 #22	10.7 #29	16.3 #27	2.3 #7	2.3 #3	4.7 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.