Broncos @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sun, Oct 5, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff80°F3 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

2-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

4-0 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

PHI -4.5

✓ DEN W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 20–24 PHI

✗ PHI (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -5.5

ClosePHI -4.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -5.5

1 → DEN

ClosePHI -4.5

1 pt toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -5.5 · closed PHI -4.5 · moved 1 toward DENmodel PHI -2.5

model PHI -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 56% (105 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 38% (45 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -5.5

ClosePHI -4.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 4.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 21–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 4; 50.3 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 5 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Very close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Very close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Very close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	0-1
PHI LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOUU	1-3	25%	2-2
PHI UUOO	2-2	50%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 52% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
PHI	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 3–3 PHI Series tied · 6 games since 2005 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+0.4 →+1.7▲ 1.3#11

PHI+3.2 →+2.8▼ 0.4#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

DEN

Longer bar = better

PHI

#16

Offense

Even

#18

Defense

◀ DEN better

#14

−0.5 #23

Turnovers

PHI better ▶

+1.0 #5

63 plays #11

Pace

◀ DEN faster

60 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #18	22.0 #16	Even
Yards / play	5.60 #10	5.40 #18	DEN
EPA / play	+0.06 #11	−0.07 #7	Even
Success rate	42% #23	43% #15	PHI

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	PHI off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #7	16.8 #2	DEN
Yards / play	4.17 #30	4.66 #7	DEN
EPA / play	+0.03 #17	−0.11 #3	DEN
Success rate	44% #19	38% #3	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.3 #17	10.5 #3	14.8 #9	5.0 #9	4.3 #27	9.3 #25
PHI allowed	5.0 #17	8.8 #25	13.8 #25	5.3 #22	3.0 #2	8.3 #4

PHI scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	8.8 #2	6.8 #17	15.5 #4	6.8 #2	4.8 #26	11.5 #14
DEN allowed	3.8 #10	6.8 #16	10.5 #14	2.3 #2	4.0 #6	6.3 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.