Chiefs @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Mon, Oct 6, 2025, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff78°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

2-2 · Power #12

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

3-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -3.5

✓ JAX W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 23–20 JAX

✗ KC (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -2.5

CloseKC -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -2.5

1 → KC

CloseKC -3.5

1 pt toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -2.5 · closed KC -3.5 · moved 1 toward KCmodel KC -2.5

model KC -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (102 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 42% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -2.5

CloseKC -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 3.5-point road favorite at JAX, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 31–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 3.2; 49.4 points a game (usually 44). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Very close	LAC @ LV 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-3.5	20–9	W	U46.5
Very close	PHI @ TB 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	31–25	W	O43.5
Very close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Close	HOU @ MIN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-2	7–34	L	U46.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	BAL @ KC 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	20–37	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LLWW	2-2	50%	1-0	1-1
JAX WLWW	3-1	75%	2-0	1-1

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; JAX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2
JAX UOUO	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 163 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
JAX	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KC 10–5 JAX KC leads · 15 games since 2001 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 17 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 17 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 9	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+1.3 →+2.4▲ 1.1#7

JAX−2.1 →−0.1▲ 2.0#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

JAX

#15

Offense

Even

#16

#15

Defense

JAX better ▶

+0.8 #8

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+2.3 #1

63 plays #14

Pace

JAX faster ▶

66 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	KC off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #15	18.0 #4	JAX
Yards / play	5.27 #22	5.10 #10	JAX
EPA / play	+0.12 #7	−0.13 #1	JAX
Success rate	45% #15	39% #2	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #16	19.0 #5	KC
Yards / play	5.32 #18	5.35 #18	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #17	0.00 #14	Even
Success rate	45% #12	46% #21	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	1.5 #32	9.8 #4	11.3 #19	5.8 #10	7.3 #15	13.0 #12
JAX allowed	3.3 #8	2.3 #1	5.5 #1	5.5 #26	7.0 #18	12.5 #19

JAX scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.3 #18	11.0 #3	15.3 #4	4.8 #13	4.0 #29	8.8 #25
KC allowed	5.3 #22	4.5 #4	9.8 #12	3.3 #7	6.0 #12	9.3 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.