Titans @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sun, Oct 5, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Arizona Cardinals

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

0-4 · Power #31

▲ winner

Final

Arizona Cardinals

2-2 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

ARI -7.5

✓ TEN W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 18–25 ARI

✗ ARI (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -7.5

CloseARI -7.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARI -7.5

no move

CloseARI -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARI -7.5 · unchangedmodel ARI -9.5

model ARI -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 48% (81 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -7.5

CloseARI -7.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARI as a 7.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TEN won 22–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 7.3; 42.9 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI vs CAR 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	27–22	L	O45.5
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	26–0	W	U39.5
Close	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Close	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	DEN vs CIN 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	28–3	W	U44.5
Close	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Close	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Close	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Loose	CHI vs NE 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-6.5	3–19	L	U37.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN WLLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-3
ARI WLWL	2-2	50%	0-2	1-1

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; ARI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN UOOU	2-2	50%	0-4
ARI UOUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 144 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	0-10 0%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%
ARI	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TEN 2–4 ARI ARI leads · 6 games since 2005 · TEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.8 →−5.7▼ 3.9#32

ARI+0.1 →−0.7▼ 0.8#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TEN

Longer bar = better

ARI

#32

Offense

ARI better ▶

#24

#27

Defense

ARI better ▶

#14

0.0 #16

Turnovers

ARI better ▶

+0.3 #10

58 plays #25

Pace

Even

59 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: ARI defense

	TEN off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	12.8 #32	18.5 #6	ARI
Yards / play	3.66 #32	5.17 #14	ARI
EPA / play	−0.25 #31	−0.01 #15	ARI
Success rate	36% #31	46% #21	ARI

When ARI has the ball

Even matchup

	ARI off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #23	30.0 #28	ARI
Yards / play	4.57 #26	5.94 #29	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #20	+0.16 #30	ARI
Success rate	40% #26	45% #19	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	1.5 #31	5.5 #26	7.0 #29	3.3 #27	2.5 #32	5.8 #32
ARI allowed	2.5 #4	5.8 #14	8.3 #6	2.3 #2	8.0 #20	10.3 #15

ARI scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	4.0 #19	6.8 #19	10.8 #21	4.0 #19	5.8 #20	9.8 #23
TEN allowed	7.5 #29	4.0 #5	11.5 #18	6.8 #29	11.8 #30	18.5 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.