Dolphins @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sun, Oct 5, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Carolina Panthers

Weather at kickoff78°F7 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

1-3 · Power #28

final

Final

Carolina Panthers

1-3 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -1.5

✓ CAR W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 23–22 CAR

✗ MIA (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -1.5

CloseMIA -1.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -1.5

no move

CloseMIA -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -1.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -2

model MIA -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 56% (73 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -1.5

CloseMIA -1.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 1.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CAR won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 44.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 2.8; 40.3 points a game (usually 43). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT @ NE 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	21–14	W	U44.5
Close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Close	NYJ @ TEN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–17	W	U42.5
Close	TEN @ JAX 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	13–20	L	U38.5
Close	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5
Loose	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
CAR LWWL	2-2	50%	1-0	2-2

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
CAR UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 172 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
CAR	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 5–3 CAR MIA leads · 8 games since 2001 · CAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 15 2023	Carolina Panthers 21 @ Miami Dolphins 42	MIA -13.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA0.0 →−2.7▼ 2.7#25

CAR−3.5 →−3.7▼ 0.2#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MIA

Longer bar = better

CAR

#19

Offense

◀ MIA better

#24

#30

Defense

CAR better ▶

#21

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

CAR better ▶

−0.3 #19

53 plays #30

Pace

CAR faster ▶

65 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #22	23.8 #19	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #16	5.82 #28	MIA
EPA / play	+0.03 #14	+0.05 #22	MIA
Success rate	43% #22	43% #13	CAR

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: CAR offense

	CAR off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #26	29.5 #26	Even
Yards / play	4.48 #27	6.34 #30	Even
EPA / play	−0.07 #25	+0.26 #31	CAR
Success rate	45% #17	55% #32	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.5 #28	7.0 #15	9.5 #22	5.0 #9	6.3 #18	11.3 #15
CAR allowed	5.0 #17	12.0 #31	17.0 #29	3.5 #9	3.3 #3	6.8 #3

CAR scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	4.8 #15	0.8 #32	5.5 #32	4.0 #21	9.3 #6	13.3 #8
MIA allowed	5.5 #23	7.5 #21	13.0 #23	6.3 #29	10.3 #28	16.5 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.