Chargers @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sun, Oct 12, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff82°F1 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

3-2 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Miami Dolphins

1-4 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

✓ MIA W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 24–21 MIA

✓ LAC (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -5.5

CloseLAC -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -5.5

2 → MIA

CloseLAC -3.5

2 pts toward Miami Dolphins

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -5.5 · closed LAC -3.5 · moved 2 toward MIAmodel LAC -2.5

model LAC -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (103 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -5.5

CloseLAC -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 3.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 29–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 3.3; 42.7 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Very close	KC @ CLE 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–7	W	U41.5
Very close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Very close	HOU @ JAX 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	23–20	L	U44.5
Very close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & total	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2
MIA LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUUU	1-4	20%	3-2
MIA UOOOO	4-1	80%	1-4

Went over in Q4. Of 164 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
MIA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAC 6–12 MIA MIA leads · 18 games since 1999 · LAC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 10 2023	Miami Dolphins 36 @ Los Angeles Chargers 34	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.5 →+0.8▲ 0.3#14

MIA0.0 →−3.1▼ 3.1#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

LAC

Longer bar = better

MIA

#20

Offense

Even

#21

Defense

◀ LAC better

#31

−0.6 #26

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

0.0 #18

64 plays #11

Pace

◀ LAC faster

53 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	19.6 #26	29.0 #27	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #13	6.36 #31	LAC
EPA / play	−0.01 #22	+0.24 #32	LAC
Success rate	44% #18	53% #32	LAC

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	MIA off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #21	19.6 #7	LAC
Yards / play	5.24 #23	4.98 #8	LAC
EPA / play	+0.05 #14	−0.04 #8	LAC
Success rate	41% #27	41% #3	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	6.0 #7	6.0 #20	12.0 #13	4.2 #17	3.4 #31	7.6 #32
MIA allowed	4.4 #16	8.0 #23	12.4 #21	5.6 #27	11.0 #29	16.6 #31

MIA scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.6 #28	8.4 #8	11.0 #22	4.0 #20	6.4 #20	10.4 #19
LAC allowed	2.0 #4	6.4 #17	8.4 #5	6.8 #29	4.4 #7	11.2 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.