Seahawks @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sun, Oct 12, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff75°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

3-2 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-1 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

SEA -1.5

✓ SEA W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 24–22 JAX

✓ SEA (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -1.5

CloseSEA -1.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJAX -1.5

3 → SEA

CloseSEA -1.5

3 pts toward Seattle Seahawks

Total

Open44.5

▲ 3

Close47.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -1.5 · closed SEA -1.5 · moved 3 toward SEAmodel SEA -2.5

model SEA -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 56% (75 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (47 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -1.5

CloseSEA -1.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 1.5-point road favorite at JAX, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 20–12; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 2.5; 45.9 points a game (usually 43.1). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB @ MIN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & rest	-0.5	25–27	L	O48.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	NYJ @ ARI 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-1.5	6–31	L	U46.5
Close	KC @ JAX 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	28–31	L	O45.5
Close	LAC @ LV 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	20–9	W	U46.5
Close	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Loose	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Loose	DAL @ MIN 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2	40–3	W	U48.5
Loose	BAL @ KC 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	20–37	L	O49.5
Loose	NYJ @ PIT 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	15–37	L	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA LWWWL	3-2	60%	2-0	2-1
JAX WLWWW	4-1	80%	3-0	2-1

Venue/role: SEA away, as favorite; JAX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
JAX UOUOO	3-2	60%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 51% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
JAX	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SEA 6–2 JAX SEA leads · 8 games since 2000 · SEA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA−0.1 →+1.7▲ 1.8#13

JAX−2.1 →−0.3▲ 1.8#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SEA

Longer bar = better

JAX

Offense

◀ SEA better

#14

#13

Defense

Even

#13

−0.2 #20

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+1.6 #2

57 plays #28

Pace

JAX faster ▶

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SEA offense

	SEA off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #5	20.0 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.27 #3	5.60 #21	SEA
EPA / play	+0.09 #9	−0.07 #6	Even
Success rate	48% #10	44% #16	SEA

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #10	21.0 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #16	5.00 #9	SEA
EPA / play	+0.04 #17	+0.02 #20	Even
Success rate	46% #12	43% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	7.0 #4	8.2 #9	15.2 #4	6.0 #7	8.0 #12	14.0 #7
JAX allowed	4.0 #10	3.2 #2	7.2 #3	4.4 #15	8.4 #20	12.8 #23

JAX scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	3.4 #23	10.2 #3	13.6 #8	6.6 #5	5.2 #24	11.8 #15
SEA allowed	3.8 #8	4.8 #6	8.6 #6	3.6 #9	8.8 #22	12.4 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.