49ers @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sun, Oct 12, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff83°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

4-1 · Power #10

final

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-1 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

TB -3.5

✓ TB W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 22–26 TB

✓ TB (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -2.5

CloseTB -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -2.5

1 → TB

CloseTB -3.5

1 pt toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -2.5 · closed TB -3.5 · moved 1 toward TBmodel TB -3

model TB -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (166 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 42% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -2.5

CloseTB -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 3.5-point home favorite against SF, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 30–19; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.4 against an average line of 3.4; 54.2 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Very close	CIN vs PIT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	38–44	L	O46.5
Very close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Very close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Very close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WWLLW	3-2	60%	3-0	1-0
TB WWLLW	3-2	60%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: SF away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF UOUOO	3-2	60%	4-1
TB UUOOO	3-2	60%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 152 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
TB	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SF 9–6 TB SF leads · 15 games since 2002 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 10 2024	San Francisco 49ers 23 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20	SF -6.5	TB W
Nov 19 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 @ San Francisco 49ers 27	SF -13.5	TB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+1.9▲ 1.0#10

TB+1.2 →+1.9▲ 0.7#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

#15

Offense

Even

#13

#12

Defense

◀ SF better

#20

−0.6 #25

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+0.4 #8

70 plays #1

Pace

◀ SF faster

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #22	26.4 #23	Even
Yards / play	5.40 #17	5.32 #15	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #16	+0.02 #21	SF
Success rate	49% #6	46% #21	SF

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #7	19.6 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #11	5.12 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.10 #8	−0.03 #9	Even
Success rate	42% #25	46% #23	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	4.6 #16	5.8 #20	10.4 #22	2.8 #28	7.4 #12	10.2 #21
TB allowed	6.8 #29	4.6 #4	11.4 #20	4.8 #18	10.2 #28	15.0 #29

TB scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.2 #26	9.4 #3	12.6 #10	7.8 #1	6.6 #18	14.4 #6
SF allowed	0.0 #1	8.8 #25	8.8 #6	5.2 #22	5.6 #10	10.8 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.